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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (123590)	8/28/2002 12:16:44 PM
From: qveauriche	Respond to of 152472

Mucho- I don't think that he called for the demise of Microsoft; to the contrary my recollection ( I'll try to find the exact quote) is that he acknowledged that they would continue to be important companies for many years to come. His point was that the companies that would most radically transform society in the future were not MSFT, INTC etal., but rather would be the companies that were on the cusp of improving our communicative abilities to an even greater degree than the aforementioned had improved our computing abilities over the past two decades. The specific analogy he used to describe the role of MSFT, INTC etal is that they have done a masterful job of constructing a breathtakingly beautiful Mercedes, but alas in the confines of a tangled rainforest. The Mercedes is and will remain important, but what the Mercedes needs most are highways to travel on. The companies that build the highways will be the ones who most profoundly affect our lives. The tech bubble notwithstanding, I see no reason why, as a sociological observation, this prediction won't turn out to be true. And as for the death of television, his point was simply that the all optical net would afford an infinite variety of content such that the whole concept of a tv network deciding what you see or hear and when will become a dinosaur. The first step in this process has already occurred with the much wider range of choice presented by cable and sattelite tv and the dramatic decline in importance of the Big 3 networks. The all-optical net will obsolete TV just as cable has obsoleted the networks, and also tv as a model for content delivery because of its top down take it or leave it architecture. As for his being swept up by the bubble, in fairness to him he asserted the core beliefs upon which these ideas were predicated even way before Greenspan's irrational exuberence comment, and way before anyone thought of a telecom stock as anything other than a safe investment for widows and orphans. We could also have a detailed discussion on the overall accuracy of his technology predictions, and its one I would be glad to have with you on the SI Gilder thread. My view is that such a detailed review would reveal a success rate far in excess of what can be fairly attributed to pin the tail on the donkey dumb luck. A final point related to his making 20 million a year to tout stocks. You have to remember that the GTR was unheard of, ignored, and barely breaking even from its inception to the point of the ERICY capitulation to QCOM in the Spring of 1998, and the consequent ascent of QCOM. HHe had been a lone wolf crying in the wilderness over the coming telecommunications revolution and the particular technologies that would make it happen. And a telecom revolution we certainly did have, do have, and continue to have, and it will be a primary source of productivity gains in the economy for years to come. Aside from the foregoing qualifications,I agree with what you say. A very useful and interesting post. Best regards.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (123590)	8/29/2002 8:18:15 AM
From: Sam Salomon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

BW was prescient in this case and already started to ask some questions in May 2000, see What Disclosure Could Do for George Gilder If he revealed his portfolio and set a firm insider investing policy, the tech guru would further enhance his credibility businessweek.com I think the ML connection and the fact that there was widespread speculation, which stocks GTR may mention in the next issue (these stocks sometimes ran up 20 -40 percent and more in a few days and crashed if they were not favorably mentioned), should have made GTR extra cautious. Instead they tried to grow ... And how come, a powerhouse like ML, was not able to ask some critical questions re valuation (I believe, quite to the contrary, they fired the analyst who stated that AMZN was worth around $ 10 and replaced him by Blodget)? The question is: Did so many intelligent people really believe that under these circumstances they were not playing with fire? If I recall correctly, the Spitzer investigation has revealed certain emails that showed quite a lot of cynicism around.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (123590)	9/4/2002 12:39:03 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 152472

Text of July 2002 Wired magazine article on George Gilder : wired.com Here is some from the beginning : The Madness of King George George Gilder listened to the technology, and became guru of the telecosm. The markets listened to his newsletter, and followed him into the Global Crossing abyss. yet he's never stopped believing. By Gary Rivlin The lunch plates were cleared long ago, and the waitress gazes vacantly out over an otherwise empty dining room. But George Gilder, his legs propped on a nearby chair, seems rooted in place, not quite ready to leave. We're lingering at a restaurant down the street from his office in Great Barrington, a hamlet set along a rural highway that winds through the southern tip of the Berkshires in western Massachusetts. Here, one of the tech world's more famous - and controversial - prophets is contemplating how he could have been so right over the past half-dozen years and yet seen everything turn out so terribly wrong. A look of anguish clouds his face. "I knew that it was going to crash, I really did," Gilder says ... Copyright © 2002 Wired Digital, Inc. All rights reserved.