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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5129)	8/28/2002 1:42:26 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95463

RE: "These back-enders of the semi equipment industry typically lead coming out of a downturn and see changes in demand fairly quickly and before many others." "Typically"! When will analysts realize that a "bubble" aftermath is NOT a "typical" semi-equip down cycle? RE: "Applied Materials finally guided lower as it was the last of the biggies to admit it's ugly out there." "Finally"! AMAT was last because it reports last and gives future guidance at the report's conference call. RE: "...the move to more efficient technologies is occurring, but it is not occurring at a fast enough pace to sustain AMAT's revenues and the current technology is good enough already." OK, technology builds are not making up for the fall in capacity builds. If "current technology is good enough", why are there technology builds? All in all, I am underwhelmed by the assessment.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5129)	8/28/2002 1:51:46 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95463

Prudential trims Intel, AMD earnings By Deborah Adamson, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 11:25 AM ET Aug. 28, 2002 marketwatch.com NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Prudential Financial slashed fourth-quarter earnings estimates Wednesday for chipmaker rivals Intel and AMD after a check in the Taiwanese supply chain pointed to slower growth. Shares of industry leader Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile) fell by 22 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $16.96 while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: news, chart, profile) gave up 36 cents, or 4 percent, to $8.73. Analyst Hans Mosesmann said demand patterns in the personal computer supply chain in Taiwan suggest that Intel likely won't see more than 10 percent sequential growth in the fourth quarter. Taiwan is a major contract manufacturer of PCs; decreased demand for computers means fewer orders for chips. Also, "back to school has been muted and the Taiwanese foundries' increased cautiousness are indicators of a more gradual pickup in the second half of 2002, below seasonal patterns," he told clients. As such, Mosesmann cut his fiscal 2002 earnings estimates for Intel by a penny to 53 cents a share. Wall Street analysts expect a 55-cent profit on average, according to Thomson Financial/First Call. However, the analyst maintained his outlook of 4.4 percent growth in the third quarter and kept his "buy" rating on the stock. The analyst also left his 2003 earnings estimates untouched at 82 cents -- 3 cents higher than what Wall Street expects. "We reiterate our 'buy' rating on good prospects for a 2003 corporate upgrade cycle and execution on all fronts by the company," the analyst wrote in his research report. Mosesmann has a $25 price target for the stock. As for rival AMD, the analyst sees much of the same business conditions afflicting the chipmaker. However, he sees AMD's third-quarter processor sales to come in flat sequentially rather than the expectation of modest growth. He also noted that AMD's continued market shares losses through the end of the year will exacerbate the situation of a weaker outlook. The analyst cut his fiscal 2002 loss estimate for AMD to $1.56, down from a loss of $1.45. For next year, Mosesmann slashed his expectation to a loss of 10 cents, down from breakeven. The Street is expecting a loss of $1.42 for this year and a loss of 58 cents in 2003. However, Mosesmann kept his 'buy' rating on the stock "on good prospects for AMD's Hammer processor in 2003." His price target for AMD is $12. Thanks for sharing that info from Briefing.com. It still looks like we head for the lower Bollinger Band on the SOX before we can get a lasting bounce if then to me. That level is 280 according to this chart. Lower than the recent lows. Time will tell if my expected 243 number comes to pass later this fall. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2!c20][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!La12,26,9]&pref=G SOX Monthly Chart: stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20021231][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5129)	8/28/2002 2:03:35 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95463

Looking At Bear Bottoms David Simons, 08.28.02, 8:00 AM ET forbes.com The five-week, 19% runup of stocks from the July lows has been hailed as absolutely, positively marking the end of the bear market decline that began in March 2000. Probably. But that doesn't mean you should rush to invest. Long bear markets don't turn around on a dime. They recover slowly and have relapses along the way. Following the bear market low of 1970, stocks meandered for three months before beginning a sustained advance. The 1972-74 bear, which many have compared to the 2000-02 edition, took four months from its low to get in gear to the upside. Like the boom and bust of bubbles, recoveries of major bear markets look similar to one another. The chart line of the S&P 500 in the month since this year's July low strikingly resembles the post-low performances of 1970 and 1974. Back then, V-shaped upturns of the first month were followed by sharp pullbacks that gave up three-quarters of the initial recovery. This year, odds of a similar move are enhanced by September's status as the weakest month of the year. Since 1950 it's been down 60% of the time, with losses up to 12%, versus a maximum gain of 8%. That doesn't mean you should hold off investing fresh cash. Markets are rarely as predictable as history can make it seem--especially about short-term moves. But the odds suggest spreading commitment over the next three months, weighted toward November. There was a chart that I cannot post here so follow the link. RtS