To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (170771 ) 8/29/2002 12:48:51 AM From: Sig Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387 Not too bad, Herschel, but I'll toss in a few comments on your post. <<<Sure, there has been talk of price wars in the past, but this time is different for the PC sector:>> Back in '97or'98 Dell cut prices of (mostly pc's) 12 times in one year- big price cuts- like 49%, and came out the winner. The ASP for Dell has increased this quarter and margins are holding- where is the beef? <<< -You've got the longest PC replacement cycles in many years as people find their 400 Mhz Pentiums are sufficient to run MPEG's and DVD's. >> True at the moment- this post is written with an Optiplex GX! -400 However, notebooks represent the biggest proportion of sales today and I would not expect those to last as long as desktops due to handling environment and because manufacturers have recently made great improvements in displays, power consumption, battery life, storage, and wireless capability so older models will become extinct faster <<< -HP has a 7 week inventory overhang. And this time, HPQ WILL have to get more agressive in pricing because their survival and the credibility of their merger is at stake.>>> Good luck to HPQ if they want to cut prices and lose more money << -Plus with DELL entering their coveted printer biz, HPQ will attempt to weaken DELL whereever possible because now DELL is a direct threat to their survival.>> Its HPQ thats having a problem surviving << I'm not saying HPQ will be successful because that remains to be seen, but I am saying that the competitive process will be detrimental to both and I think you know that intuitively.>> No problem : Michael loves competition, thrives on it, came from 8 th to 1st in sales on it << So there are a lot of parameters that are different this time. Successful investing entails continually re-evaluating your positions with a new perspective. >> OK. And true of any stock- drives one nuts. <<< You DELLHEADS are so smug about DELL's former glory that you fail to see the inevitable truth.>> I dont know about the smug bit, but it was a H%%l of an adventure and happy to have been a part of it. You get to meet the most interesting people around (G) << If you're content with stagnation and future stagnation, keep your long DELL shares rather than looking for other better long investments in today's market. DELL is so big that the law of large numbers makes marginal percentage increases in share value harder to make. There are many other medium-cap tech stocks that will double or triple in the next 6 months, but I'm not about to share those ideas with stubborn DELLHEADS. >>> The truth is I would be far better off today if I had just kept Dell shares locked up for the last few years instead of chasing others. Dell was the best performing stock of the decade, but only in the S+P 500. (or 100?) Many others did even better. And within any 6 month period in history many stocks did better- Cpq, Qcom, Yahoo, Amat, Aol,Amzn, Rmbs ( add your own to the list) but where are their stock prices at today.? Stagnation is a common problem today- look at Brka- Is Dell a sleeping dragon?. What I know about Dell is that they will be around for a long, long, time. Where is Tulip, Atari, Tandem, Digital, Ene, Km, etc, etc ? Poor Gtw. Sig <<<Second-quarter operating expenses were 9.9 percent of revenue, matching a company record set in Q1. Improved product mix, lean cost management and lower component costs contributed to a jump in operating profit as a percent of revenue to 8.0 percent-the company's highest in seven quarters, and up from 7.3 percent in the first quarter and 7.2 percent one year ago.>>>