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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (5162)	8/29/2002 11:42:34 AM
From: Terry D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

NVLS - stuck in a limited range acc. to Maire at BS NVLS is holding its Q3 mid-quarter update after the close. In our view, we are not likely to come away with any major new incremental information from the call. Previous guidance was for orders to be flat to down 10%. We could potentially see NVLS fall more in line with Applied Materials, and update to down 5-15% in orders, or perhaps even lower. Our view is this potential is already discounted in the stock price. Our perception is that business has continued to weaken since NVLS' quarterly report. Most recent indications from Asia are for capital spending to trend downward. Given that early indications of “back to school” do not appear exciting, we would suggest that any spending changes are likely to be negative from here. NVLS has exposure to the transition to copper, which does lean it more in favor of being a technology buy vs. a capacity buy, but copper is far from 100% of business, especially after the Gasonics (strip) acquisition. Thus NVLS has similar exposure as other same-sized equipment cos. Given the relatively low valuations of the semiconductor equipment group in general, and NVLS in particular, we feel that downside from here is relatively limited, but upside is also likewise limited due to the shadow that is hanging over the general economic and technology specific recoveries. We see little movement of the stock generated from the update call with the only potential movement being downside if any catastrophic projections are made (which we do not expect).

To: Gottfried who wrote (5162)	8/29/2002 12:16:50 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

RESEARCH ALERT-UBS Warburg cuts Texas Instruments estimate Thursday August 29, 12:00 pm ET biz.yahoo.com NEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - UBS Warburg on Thursday said it lowered its estimate for Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN - News) earnings for 2003 and 2004 and cut its price target due to decreased semiconductor industry growth forecasts. Texas Instruments makes digital signal processors, which are used in the telecommunications industry, primarily in mobile phones. Demand for its products has been hurt amid the worst downturn in the semiconductor industry on record. UBS Warburg said its new price target for the company's shares is $27, down from $39. Shares were off 3 percent, or 64 cents, at $19.61 on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday morning. UBS said it sees Texas Instruments' calendar 2003 sales at $10.2 billion, down from $10.6 billion, and earnings at 73 cents per share, down from a previous estimate of 83 cents per share. It sees calendar 2004 sales at $12 billion, down from $12.7 billion, with earnings at $1.17 per share, down from its previous estimate of $1.31 per share. UBS rates the stock a "buy."