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To: AllansAlias who wrote (51867)	8/29/2002 11:16:16 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 209892

i am lmao here bro...nothing personal, believe me...just digging the intensity. 1st, i was talking to mike about the hui regarding the 50 dma's. 2nd, i'm not trading tech here,... yet. i'm trading weak big board retail....and looking at bankers like mer etc. like i said before, 940.86 is a big # for me on the spx. alot could happen during a thinly traded pre holiday session depending on what kind of eco #'s get spun. my deal is slightly below parity, and i'm still 50% short, so i'm a bit unfazed here. i will say this, i am NOT looking for any kind of breakout here in any index, PNF notwithstanding. i think theres a whole raft of current bases in individual cap weighted tech index issues that are unsustainable. the smart money i watch is looking for lower prices over the next 2 weeks, and then into the october november election timeframe window, whipsaws included. daily action sets the tone, but i remain bearish. i doubt i'll get whipped out tommorrow on some bs low vol holiday move.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51867)	8/30/2002 12:03:03 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Posted on my board on the FOOL by me. Hounds When they bark do you listen? Did they bark? Can one single day represent a hound bark? Enquiring minds want to know what the H I am talking about! First off what is a hound? (For the record I stole this term from AllansAlias on SI). Second I will try my best to explain this. And will post his reply which may or may not make me look foolish. A hound call is an abnormal behavior. Something very unexpected that means you better look out or you may get run over. I think I noticed one the other day when I had puts on ADI ahead of earnings. Horrid earnings but the POS opened down a mere 30 cents and started ticking up. I sold my puts IMMEDIATELY and if I really listened to the hound I would have bought calls cause the damn thing ran from 23 to 27. At least I got out of my puts even. Did we have a hound call today? The Naz was strong all day. Everybody and their brother has been saying "short tech and stay away from non-tech. Tech is overvalued. Blah blah blah". Well today the TRIN was over 1 almost all day on the SPOOS and the rally was weak. Today the Naz TRINQ dropped to .2 or so and was under .5 most of the day. Incredible buying. Is this just because the Naz was so weak relative to spoos? Can we even believe the TRINQ with all those POS sub $5 stocks. Or is this because everybody expects tech to fall and not the spoos. "Tech IS so overvalued". I have talked to many people that are "not worried because thay are not in tech". Can tech be stronger than old economy BS for the next two weeks, two months, or heaven forbid the rest of the year?! Perhaps this is just a month end anomily. Perhaps it is nothing at all, but it was unuasual (to me anyway, as compared to the last 2 months). Now, I doubt that one day is a hound call. I do not know if there was even a peep from that dog. I am not a hound expert but I will ask the hound expert his opinion. At any rate it is something to watch. The spoos led the decline once before. Can they do it again? Is the hound barking? Is there a hound? Perhaps I am dreaming. After all, it is tech that is overvalued, EVERYBODY knows that. Can tech start an uptick (corporate PC replacements ect) while autos and the rest of non-tech and pension funds BS sink non-tech? Will the double dip hurt old economy stocks worse than tech? Is that possible? If that is the case will a hound bark? If a hound barks will you listen? OK Allan, rip me to shreds. (to be posted to allan on SI) M