re: Ray Le Maistre on Sonera & Nokia and 3G "Sevices"
>> Sonera Confuses 3G With 2G
Ray Le Maistre
European Editor
Unstrung
08.30.02
This must be the broadest interpretation of 3G yet.
Finnish telco Sonera Corp. (Nasdaq: SNRA) is so committed to its long-set 3G launch date of September 26 that it will have to use its current GPRS network and already-available GPRS handsets for the launch of its first "3G" services.
This means the operator has effectively delayed the commercial launch of its 3G network but can hardly bring itself to say so. Yet it persists in stating that September 26 will see the launch of 3G services, even though they will not be running on a UMTS network or involve 3G handsets.
The phones were supposed to be supplied by Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK), which had set the same date for the official launch of its 3G models.
To be honest, the joint launch on such a specific date always looked like an enormous banana skin (see "Finns Head for Limp Launch" below).
So instead of a proper 3G launch, the company will kickstart some new services (which appear to be little more than picture messaging and WAP-based information) that can run on its existing 2G network and can be used by people with Java-enabled MMS phones.
This is not a good move, believes John Fletcher, a senior consultant at Analysys Consulting, who is in no mood to mince words:
"This sounds like a major marketing gaffe. To call something 3G when it clearly isn't is just stupid. You would have to be pretty gullible to believe this is 3G. Who would have cared if they had just said they were postponing the launch? No one. This is bad news for Sonera and bad news for 3G."
And he hasn't finished:
"You can't launch 3G services on a 2G network. It doesn't make any sense. This whole idea is a retrograde step. This has real potential to cause long-term damage to Sonera. What will they sell as '3G' after this? Will they call their true 3G services 4G instead? This is the sort of crass thing you would expect from an old PTT. What's wrong with launching these services as GPRS? It's nothing to be ashamed of -- there's nothing wrong with GPRS. This is a folly."
So what's the hold-up? A "technological delay" is blamed for the lack of working 3G hardware at this time. It's worth noting here that as well as being the intended source of UMTS handsets, Nokia is also the supplier of Sonera's core and access UMTS network.
"In spite of the delay and slower overall start in UMTS technology deployment globally, we continue to be in the vanguard of the development of next generation services," proclaims the company's official release. "The services that we will launch in September will be the first step, after which we can continue with the development work."
A senior Sonera executive confirms the worst. "The 3G network will not be available on 26 September," Sonera vice president Pekka Keskiivari tells Unstrung. "The services will be used with existing handsets." So will there be any Nokia 3G phones available at all at this launch? "I would have to ask you to direct that question to Nokia," says Keskiivari. Do we detect some tension here?
Keskiivari also confirmed that it will be 2003 before commercial services are available on Sonera's 3G network, making reference to the official wording that lays the blame at Nokia's door. Commercial services will be available "as soon as there is a sufficient number of UMTS-enabled terminals available and this is feasible in view of the maturity of the network technology."
So what has Nokia to say about this? Well, they're being careful with their words, that's for sure.
"We are launching the terminal on September 26," states Nokia spokeswoman Maija Tommila.
But will the phones be used for Sonera's 3G services? Will we see the phone working?
"There will be some demonstrations."
With Sonera?
"Sonera representatives will be there. I don't have a clear understanding of what network will be involved."
Unstrung will be looking for a strategically placed van with portable test kit on the day.
Then, as if to suggest it was never Nokia's intention to have its handsets used for Sonera's 3G commercial launch, Tommila adds: "Our plans have not changed."
An interesting suggestion that will not help relations at Sonera HQ, we're sure. <<
>> Finns Head for Limp Launch
Ray Le Maistre
European Editor
Unstrung
07.22.02
unstrung.com
The interpretation of "commercial launch" will be stretched to its limits in Finland this September.
Homegrown mobile talents Sonera Corp. (Nasdaq: SNRA) and Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) are sticking to their timetable for a joint 3G jamboree, despite indications that the occasion will be little more than a photo op.
The two Finnish companies decided earlier this year to combine their respective launches – Nokia's 3G handsets and Sonera's commercial UMTS services – on September 26. But Europe's mobile operators are still in the thick of handset interoperability testing, and Nokia is now looking at 2003 for volume 3G handset shipments. (see Nokia Profits, Margins Up).
"I doubt you will be able to buy any handsets or 3G services in the shops on September 26," Bengt Nordström, president of Swedish consultancy Northstream, tells Unstrung. The launch "will have some window dressing, and there will be some value for both Nokia and Sonera in this. But the real issue is: when will there be a proper commercial launch? For that you need phones in the shops, services and roaming. That will not be until 2003 or 2004," says Nordström.
He adds that Northstream has been testing NTT DoCoMo's 3G FOMA service at its office in Japan, and although "the data throughput is very impressive, there are some serious challenges, such as battery life, which is very short. As a result, customers are choosing 2.5G services. The question that needs to be asked [about upcoming 3G launches in Europe] is whether there will be anything for the customer that is more interesting than [the services and handsets available] with 2.5G? Just because 3G exists doesn't mean it will impress [mobile customers]," states Nordström.
The Finnish companies, meanwhile, are keeping their plans to themselves. "September 26 is still the date of the launch, but there are no further details," says a Sonera spokeswoman. And they mean no details: "I don't know if we have any estimations [about the number of handsets that will be available]," she says, adding that the services to be launched and the location(s) for service are not known.
Can the staff at Nokia enlighten us? Of course not. "That is the date of the Nokia 3G handset launch. The idea is for Nokia and Sonera to showcase what 3G has to offer," says Pekka Isosomppi at Nokia's mobile phones division. He confirms there are no other details and says a venue cannot be revealed, as the companies "have not yet sent out their invitations." We look forward to receiving ours.
What about the 3G handsets? Will they be available in large volumes? "Bear in mind that one bird does not make a summer," replies Isosomppi poetically. "It depends on the plan of the operator and the other manufacturers involved." Right. It seems, then, that the upcoming lack of 3G handsets in any significant volume will be due to the unreadiness of the market, rather than Nokia's inability to deliver. The company already said so in last week's financial results release: "Depending on operator schedules in WCDMA networks, we expect the 3G business system to be mature enough for commercial handset shipments by early 2003."
Isosomppi bangs this point home: "2003 will be the year for 3G services and for networks to open [Ed: Don't forget about Sonera, Pekka!]. I think MMS will proliferate in 2002 and this will pave the way for 3G to be more meaningful." Nokia is looking to add revenues from MMS-enabled phones, which are available in the shops, in the second half of this year.
Can we expect Nokia to be delivering any number – even a very low number – of 3G phones to any other operators before 2003 comes banging at our doors? "There are no public announcements, but it is fair to say that will be the case," is as close as Isosomppi would come to saying "Yes." <<
On July 18, 2002, Jorma Ollila, Nokia Chairman And CEO, paved the way for this when he stated:
"Nokia is preparing for a string of new product launches for the remainder of the year, including a major step in September with the introduction of our first dual-mode WCDMA/GSM phone and our first 3G network. Depending on operator schedules in WCDMA networks, we expect the 3G business system to be mature enough for commercial handset shipments by early 2003"
unstrung.com
Yes. Things have changed since Jorma stated on January 30, 2001 that Nokia would ship WCDMA handsets in Q3 2002.
"Early 2003" remains undefined. I do not necessarrily take this to mean that we will see a commercial volume ramp Q1 2003 and as a matter of fact I am guessing that such a ramp will probably take place Q2 - at the earliest.
- Eric - |
