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To: reaper who wrote (51921)	8/30/2002 10:30:35 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Those are good points, I would concede, but lower stocks of oil says demand is increasing, and war premium is 3-4 bucks at most acourding to traders which leaves oil at 26, still not cheap.

To: reaper who wrote (51921)	8/30/2002 11:09:17 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Al is going to low .5x/lb maybe .4x/lb Did you read that Auerbach piece on the account deficit -- he had some pretty good arguments as to why reduced demand here didn't necessarily translate into an improved balance of payments ... he said it is "different" this time -- I agree.

To: reaper who wrote (51921)	8/30/2002 1:31:09 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

reaper, In general the commodities have been in a bear market for a long time. During these long bear markets production is taken off line slowly as producers must make profits and the weak producers go out of business. When we have economic down turns after long bear markets the production cut backs accelerate and the producers through this process set up a deficiency in supply as they overshoot squeezing the supply chain. As you noted we are having some weather affects with some commodities but these things occur no mater what the market bear or bull. IMO, in the long run these production cut backs will cause increasing prices and a bull market in commodities. I think this can occur even if we encounter a world wide depression as commodities do not have to experience demand increases as the producers will keep the supply in check. BWDIK, Joan