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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (41007)	8/30/2002 4:21:26 PM
From: CuriousGeorge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

This next war with Iraq will not be anything like the last skirmish, but I don't think it will evolve into WW3; as long as Russia and China stay out of it. In 1991, there was Windows 3.1 running on 5 mgz with some SVGA color monitor (if you were wealthy). Saddam has upgraded his weapons, systems, controls and tactics to the same degree. I believe he is prepared and actually wanting a war. He will not make the same mistakes as before, he will not allow the US six months to amass their troops, or to train and sponsor the Kurds to the North. I believe he will mount a pre-emptive attack on the Kurds (and the 'advisors') in N. Iraq in the name of battling terrorism, thus giving the US the excuse it is looking for ... ethnic cleansing? He will most likely and once again try to bring Israel into the war with biological and/or chemical scuds that will be much more effective than the '91 versions. The Israeli's will respond, (they have a particular aversion to being gassed), perhaps with low grade nuclear weapons. This will cause Syria to enter the war, and Arafat to step up his homicide bombings. Saudi Arabia will be divided, civil war may break out. Nato will be dragged in whether they want to or not. Greece, Turkey, Jordon, Iran and most of the chaos "Stans" will be forced to take sides to appease the internal pressure. Oil supplies will be disrupted for years as this tinder box explodes and burns itself out; and in the end, after three or four years, nothing will have changed except a few borders, a few governments, the demise of the dollar and perhaps the demise of Nato (and with luck the UN). And we'll do it all again in 2015 or so. Buy some quality No. American oil producers early and often. JMHO - cg