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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (5548)	8/31/2002 6:11:05 AM
From: Baldur Fjvlnisson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

October Corrections --U.S. Bear Market Commentary [do follow it] home.flash.net <<<Everyone in the mainstream financial media focuses on the 4-5 trading days before a correction as if the it is a sudden event. Instead, they should focus on all of the trading days between the previous high and the correction low. My guess is they want to avoid just this sort of examination as they continue their "everthing is fine" spinning dialog. In recent years I have seen corrections follow such highs after a 55 day decline, the longest decline being around 89 days. I checked the July-October time period for the last 17 years. I found that in 10 of those 17 years, there was a decline of 9.5% or more, that’s 58.8%. Even though this year was preceeded by 5 down years during these months, the odds are not in favor or a rally from here. Here’s the table of losses over the past 17 years. 1985 = ------ 1986 = -10.4% 1987 = -41.2% 1988 = ------ 1989 = -11.1% 1990 = -21.7% 1991 = ------ 1992 = -9.5% 1993 = ------ 1994 = ------ 1995 = ------ 1996 = ------ 1997 = -14.8% 1998 = -21.0% 1999 = -12.0% 2000 = -15.3% 2001 = -24.5%