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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5218)	9/1/2002 11:29:28 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95520

Hi Don, Recent articles indicating increased Capex by leaders like Samsung (I think keep Intel steadfast on their program of maximizing efficiencies).The fact that Taiwan foundries are progressing at perhaps a faster rate than Intel on sub micron linewidths will keep Intel on their long term plan. These capital expenditure plans are very long term pathways.A 10-15 % hickup in demand doesn't send all plans to the fireplace.They are long term events. If bookings drop, due to pushouts of 10-15 percent ,I think the response by the semis will be continued mantainance levels of production.This usually results in a completed piece of equipment being stored waiting on an updated delivery date.This type of pushout is different from a cancelation. The net result of this pushout, at worst, will result in a higher level of "inventories" or "work in process". I'd like "G" to chime in here on what might be the net effect of the "Book to Bill" - is it right that this would in fact skew the ratio up?? ie bookings stay the same and billings go down by the pushou?? Bob