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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (5224)	8/30/2002 8:53:49 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95515

BWAC- You ask some tough questions - don't you?<gg> FWIW here is my answer. Back last summer and fall when the Bookings were half of what they are now, I think most investors/analysts thought that we would have a relatively quick recovery of the "V" type. If that was the case, why sell off AMAT and the other semi-equips? Why not just "hang on" until the new wave of buying took over(remember, the bottom was in as evidenced by the low bookings numbers). I think if you go back to the "posts" that were made by the press/analysts, etc during last summer and fall, the "recovery" was coming in the first half of 2002. Well, we did get a recovery of sorts, but it wasn't as robust as most would have liked. And most importantly, even though the bookings have been growing for many months, the companies themselves say there is no "visibility" going forward. I think what they really mean is there is no visibility going forward for "capacity buys" where they really make money. The recent past several months of bookings increases have probably been mostly for "technology buys". Working the kinks out, so to speak, for when substantial demand comes back. Now, as NVLS reported yesterday, they have had 2 customers "push out" orders so they have to revise their numbers downward. Now, when the various news articles are released, there are usually some words in there about no recovery in 2002 at all. It's going to be at least the first half of 2003 before "recovery" is here. On the week ending 7/5, the Group index closed at 512. Today, 8 weeks later, it closed at 334 - that's a 35 percent decrease for the semi-equips. It was in July that the "wheels started coming off" the semi-equips. Maybe we have found a bottom now that the Group can "bounce along on" until "visibility" is improved on increased demand. That's what the DJ news article was putting forth as a premise. Who knows if that is true or not. Don