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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (52101)	8/31/2002 1:29:23 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

rydex as an indicator has pretty well been discredited <g> I keep SOME short exposure ALL the time since we entered the bear market. Very few exceptions ... Also, there are sectors which you'll simply have to stay short to catch the fall -- they can dance to a different tune altogether -- I'm staying short homebuilders -- if they go up and I have to lighten up a little fine, but I'm not getting out until they crater. Your comments are probably fine for index traders, but not everyone who trades the indices see it this way. I like the fact Greenspan came out the other day and said he couldn't have prevented the bubble without giving us a nasty case of deflation ... I know you don't do fundies or stuff like this, but it is important to me. Contrary to the opinion of some, I think our entry into Iraq has been delayed quite a bit and that this is bearish for stocks as well.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (52101)	8/31/2002 4:06:35 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

AA: I think there is a curious question to which we may get an answer in the early part of next week, namely, Are we or are we not going to see at long last a 5 wave move (down, in this case)? So far, the move (I’m thinking DOW right now, the others are similar) was 3 waves down over the past few days. By NOT conclusively breaking above the 8785 level, it is still capable of becoming an impulse down. On the other hand, if the sell off Friday afternoon was not an early part of the fifth down, but rather a set up for the next leg of the next ‘three’ up, then the series of ‘threes’ will continue unbroken. This last case, for another ‘three’ up from here, actually may be be short term rather bearish, because after another small move up to complete the “b” of a putative larger zigzag down, the next move would be a likely sister leg of the prior decline into the 8/29 low). On the other hand, if we see soon a move to new lows relatively to that of 8/29, thereby completing a 5 wave impulse, then we can reasonably expect a multi-day rally, which would unfold in a corrective fashion (and be a likely 2 or b), which would try to re-test the highs of 8/22. (This scenario would make my life a little bit easier, which does occur, but not often –g). The nice part of this train of thought is that we may see an answer soon, and not too far from where the action is at present. As for me, if we complete a ‘five’ down, I’ll cover at least in part, expecting a significant re-tracement, and if we rally from here to make another “three”, I’ll stay put(s)… and then see. Now, what MAY I “see”?… It is not impossible that the entire rally since late July – early August will ‘correct’, and than go on to make a matching move up, to make a big zigzag or a flat, thoroughly messing up both bulls and bears, before likely resuming the larger down trend. That would be a nasty an evil thing to do to y’awll. May happen. May not. Got to be nimble, and keep figuring the trend. Ol'Ski, leaving now the Opinionated.com and heading to Manhattan to see a show. Trying get a life... -g/ng.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (52101)	8/31/2002 8:20:01 PM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I can not understand why folks would add many shorts on this past Friday, with the exception of a wee Dow short at that high we tracked. Depends on one's time frame, I suppose. Sure, if one is trying to trade the "wiggles" as you so often put it, then waiting for the perfect moment of comfirmation of absolutely imminent turndown becomes quite important. If, on the other hand, one is merely seeking to take advantage of some temporary up and a market which clearly has a LONG way to go to the down side, then Friday was a plenty good place to start, IMHO. True, the DOW is still UP, but I cannot see that it is in an up CHANNEL as I understand that term, i.e., price action bounded by two parallel lines with five or more "touches" on alternating sides, etc... As for the financials, heck, I believe in miracles, but they can only levitate for so long. <g>