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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (2794)	8/31/2002 1:08:28 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

HI G, I get a confidential Bank One economic analysis - I floorplan my dealership with them. They say that the recent wave of new re-financings (due to 42 year low interest rates - and record low 30 and 15 year mortgage rates is anticipated to yield 40-50 billion dollars of Spending Capacity" into the economy. Their Corporate Econometrics Group ( CEG )tracks the US stock market progress relative to the economy. Their core approach of the model is based on the simple idea that two classes of forces drive overall equity prices : 1) Economic fudamentals - profits,interest rate, the business cycle,productivity,and other economic factors 2) Internal market dynamics - noneconomic forces,generated by the equity markets themselves. Their CEG model uses only economic fundamentals .They have tracked it back thru 1986 and although it is not perfect ( due to time lags ) they do point out that equity prices ,given time,ALWAYS RETURN TO LEVELS consistent with economic fundamentals. Their model indicates that the S&P 500 currently sits 28% below levels consistent with economic fundamentals. "And,if history is any indicator,this gap will eventually close." "The economy is recovering,but investors are focussing on transparency of financial reporting.Investors who are concentrating on the accounting scandals,however, are making a mistake.Current economic fundamentals feature extraordinarily rapid productivity growth,reflecting basic,underlying structural changes in the U.S. economy. THESE changes not transparency issues associated with accounting practices will determine the direction of equity prices in the coming years." "Also, Wall Street should eventually benefit.There is little doubt that that the equity market will be significantly higher in 12-18 months from now than they are today.The only catch will be timing the run. Since we're already invested, timing the run is no sweat - just be sure to survive until tomorrow !! On that high note I'm going shopping with the Mrs.,I hope you and all the regulars on this thread have a wonderful Labor Day Weekend. I'll be working on Labor Day as my poor sales staff is showing signs of exhaustion from the 0.0% apr sales that have run us over. They expire Sept.3 rd and we're behind serving our customers. If anyone wants to buy something new - with the free money for 5 years - call me at 888/552-5588 and I'l fix you up!<VBG> Bob

To: Gottfried who wrote (2794)	8/31/2002 2:25:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Gottfried, >> the interviewees, while bearish, are not wild-eyed bears. No, just wild eyed hallucinators. to wit: unprecedented participation by the public and foreigners in the stock market, Are they nutso ? Foreigners sold their holdings and took their money to Euro and Yen. The stability of the dollar says that process is complete for now. Probably until a shooting war starts. Consumer spending is starting to fade after being the major driver of the economy. The latest reading was consumer spending up 1% in July. That was one of the largest increases on record. It wouldn't bother me if they said we like to short stocks, it's just in our blood, and it is working for now. But the reasoning is not compatible with the conclusion. Though I see some people short AMAT at 13 1/2 and sleep soundly. So maybe these fellas know something. Sarmad

To: Gottfried who wrote (2794)	8/31/2002 4:11:33 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

The S&P 500 is still selling at 34 times trailing reported earnings and 27 times consensus earnings estimates for 2002. Historically, the S&P has traded at about 15 times earnings on average, and at the bottom of a bear market it has almost always sold at 10 to 12 times earnings. The market is still overvalued at this point, and it's vulnerable with the economy so very fragile I believe consensus earnings estimates for the S&P 500 are in the range of $48-$50 for CY02. That would put the pe at 18-19, not 27 as is claimed in the article. BK