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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (2802)	8/31/2002 11:35:39 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Sounds like a good assessment of what is going on at the present time - thanks for posting the article Gottfried. Don

To: Gottfried who wrote (2802)	9/1/2002 1:21:13 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "Chief executive Rick Hill trimmed his guidance for September quarter orders from flat with June, to a possible 20% decline to the range of $200-220 million." This is incorrect. June orders were $276M and the June CC forecast $250M orders for September, down ~10%. The revision to $200-220 is correct. RE: "...Kulicke & Soffa, whose products figure toward the "back-end" of the chipmaking process." When I see "products figure toward the "back-end"", I register "functionally illiterate" or clueless about the industry. RE: "Because back-end firms have shorter leadtimes..." This is valid analysis for "typical" capacity determined cycles. It is invalid for the current situation. The K & S announcement was for sharply lower revenues for September. Even after the downward revision, NVLS is forecasting increased revenues for September when compared to June and only slightly lower orders (0.87-0.96 BTB). Again, K & S orders increased 7% June over March while NVLS increased 58%.

To: Gottfried who wrote (2802)	9/1/2002 10:58:20 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

This seems odd: "But if the tech bear market continues, says Walker, investors may remember their discounted cashflow lessons and take another 30%-to-50% off the sector. Meanwhile, he's maintaining his Buy ratings on Applied and KLA..." Sounds like he doesn't have all that much confidence in his buy rating if he thinks the stock could go down as much as 50%. I suppose it could just be a recognition of how difficult it is to forecast the industry, though. Meanwhile, I bought some AMAT during Friday's closing selloff. If it falls more, maybe I'll buy more. I also have some KLAC and am short some KLAC puts. (I seem to have an easier time of making money selling options than buying them.)