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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (123716)	9/1/2002 12:30:08 PM
From: kech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Good explanation of business as usual. Another ways to say it is as follows. As Warren Buffet says, "if you are playing poker and you aren't sure who the patsy is, it is probably you".

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (123716)	9/1/2002 12:41:23 PM
From: John Carragher	Respond to of 152472

"Suppose the firm made a bad recommendation, now realizes it's bad, and wants to get its clients out with minimum losses". Of course we are talking about well heeled clients... Perhaps more than a few million who trade frequently. Your average guy is not going to get a call until it gets the clients, who mean a lot, out.

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (123716)	9/1/2002 3:47:54 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

AB - Well with 1X now starting and apparently quite well at lewast in the Far East and possinly in the US too maybe Q will start to perform as we have all hoped for so long. And so maybe just maybe the analyst view coincides with what we have been wating for. Surely the whole of the American investment industry and business is rooten. It can't all be bad. Best, L

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (123716)	9/1/2002 7:39:42 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

NYT -- recessions / economists / "Anxious Index" Forecast Too Sunny? Try the Anxious Index September 1, 2002 By DAVID LEONHARDT You almost wonder whether Wall Street's economists were competing with their colleagues in equity research departments to see who could make worse predictions. While the analysts were saying early last year that the stocks of Enron and the telecommunications sector were undervalued, the economists were forecasting that the country would escape recession. Whenever bad economic news emerged, many economists pushed their rosy predictions a few weeks into the future. Few acknowledged the recession until it was nearly over. Now the economy is looking weak again, and the forecasters have assured us that growth is going to pick up soon. Is there any reason to believe them? Based on history, the answer is no. As a group, Wall Street economists have failed to predict any of the three recessions in the last 20 years, according to records kept by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Hidden in the economists' forecasts, however, is a little-known economic indicator - call it the Anxious Index - that has been an impressively reliable warning light for recessions. It deserves to steal some of the attention from the oft-quoted prognostications of imminent growth. Predicting shifts in the $10 trillion United States economy is quite difficult. Economists know that optimism is usually the best bet because the economy grows more often than it shrinks. "A great many forecasters forecast the recent past," said Robert Barbera, the chief economist at Hoenig & Company, a small investment firm in Port Chester, N.Y. "You'll be right 70 percent of the time," added Mr. Barbera, one of the few economists to call last year's recession. The handful of accurate forecasters came almost exclusively from boutique firms or college campuses, and this is probably not a coincidence. Like stock analysts, economists at big banks and brokerage firms have a financial incentive to predict good times. The profits of their companies - and thus some of their own pay, which can reach seven figures for chief economists - depend on people's confidence and their willingness to buy stocks. Given these conflicts, the steady predictions that the economy will grow by an annual rate of about 3 percent in coming quarters deserves about the same consideration as the constant chorus of "buy" recommendations on stocks. James E. Cayne, chief executive of Bear Stearns, acknowledged as much while testifying two years ago during a trial to determine whether the firm should repay a client who lost millions of dollars based on its poor currency predictions. Economists "don't really have a good record as far as predicting the future," Mr. Cayne said. "I think that it is entertainment," he said, referring to their work. That may be a bit harsh. Even if their overall forecasts are unreliable, some economists at big banks and brokerage firms produce thought-provoking research about narrower areas like housing and debt. Many might also have a keener sense of foreboding than they are willing to admit publicly. Enter the Anxious Index. In addition to keeping track of the forecasts of economists, the Philadelphia Fed asks them near the middle of each quarter to estimate the odds that the economy will shrink over the coming year. The economists give a percentage for the current quarter and each of the next four. The magic number for the Anxious Index seems to be 30. When forecasters think that there is a 30 percent chance that the economy will shrink in the coming quarter, a downturn usually follows. "When we're up in that range, it really means a recession could happen at any time," said Dean Croushore, an economist at the Philadelphia Fed. (To take a look at the index, type in phil.frb.org and check under "Mean Probability of Decline in Real G.D.P." The fifth column from the left covers the quarter after the survey.) The index rose above 30 before every recession since 1968, the earliest date for which the Fed has data. In good times, the index hovers around 10. It is not perfect. It has sometimes remained above 30 even after recessions ended and raised a false alarm after the 1987 stock market crash. But the Anxious Index has a far superior record to economists' actual predictions. So what does it say these days? After jumping to almost 32 early last year, shortly before the recession, it remained high until this year's second quarter, then fell to about 14. It moved to 18 in the most recent survey, reflecting the summer's weak spending and stock market declines but still not suggesting that a double-dip recession is likely. Think of the Anxious Index as a translator for those relentlessly bullish Wall Street forecasts. Right now, the economists appear to mean what they are saying. Copyright 2002 The New York Times Company.