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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (13771)	9/3/2002 4:41:19 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 57684

Mark said he saw the sox at 260-270 on the amzn thread. Seems a little high. I didn't realize until this weekend that many semi's are at 4x 98 levels. We sure don't have that in software. L

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (13771)	9/4/2002 12:35:39 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Landmark 'down' day for NYSE Intense selling to continue, says noted researcher By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 11:05 AM ET Sept. 4, 2002 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- A noted researcher on Wednesday confirmed the first levels of panic selling in the U.S. stock market since April 2001. The selling Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange drove stock indexes down more than 4 percent in a day. Paul F. Desmond said Tuesday's activity qualified as a so-called 90 percent downside day -- an indication the worst in the stock market is far from over. Desmond, president of researcher Lowry's Reports, says 92.2 percent of total volume on the NYSE Tuesday was negative. Total points lost among the stocks that traded reached 94.2 percent. "This is strong evidence that the July low was only a temporary market bottom, that investors are just beginning to panic and that the broad market is headed for significant new lows," Desmond said in his strongest statement to date about the direction of the equity market. Desmond is held in high regard by technical analysts. His work on bear-market bottoms earned him the Charles Dow Award for research this year. Desmond's research, going back to 1933, shows the stock market virtually always undergoes prolonged stretches of intense selling before a bear-market bottom is formed. Desmond has long argued that most investors are refusing to acknowledge the fiscal pain they have endured in this, the third year of falling stock-market indexes. Acceptance of their dire financial straits and panic selling go hand in hand, he says from his Florida office. Desmond identifies such selling by gauging negative volume on points lost. "History shows that major market bottoms in the past have been preceded by an average of five 90 percent downside days before the final lows," he says. From November 1973 to December 1974, 14 of these 90 percent downside days occurred. Desmond's studies indicate no stock market can launch a meaningful and lasting rally without the horrible, nerve-jangled selling that comes with a full-blown panic. Such wholesale selling eventually ignites demand for low-priced securities. See: Red writing on the wall. Nasdaq on Tuesday failed to exceed the threshold for panic selling. Negative volume reached 94.1 percent Tuesday but points lost equaled just 88.5 percent. "We expect to see several 90 percent downside days on Nasdaq before the start of a sustained uptrend," Desmond told CBS.MarketWatch.com on Wednesday. Nasdaq's main index lost 3.9 percent Tuesday vs. a 4.1 percent loss for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a 4.7 percent loss for the NYSE Composite Index (NYA: news, chart, profile) Desmond in his research saw no signs during the September 2001 decline, or afterward, that investors had truly thrown in the towel on the stock market. In other words, there were no NYSE days when 90 percent of all trading activity was marked by falling prices for the securities exchanged and 90 percent of prices were negative, as measured by points lost. The last such day came April 3, 2001, when 90.8 percent of NYSE volume was in the red and 90.7 percent of all points gained or lost were in the minus column Desmond's research flies in the face of many Wall Street brokerages and economists, who say this summer's selling represented a buying opportunity for long-suffering investors. The veteran researcher's findings point to a prolonged, and painful, healing process for stocks, which Desmond regards as still expensive by historic standards. The silver lining in Desmond's findings is that such panic-laden sales "are typically followed by snap-back rallies lasting from two to seven days before the downtrend resumes." The snap-backs, alas, are meant as exit points for those who no longer can tolerate their long-standing stock-market losses. "Such rallies usually provide a good opportunity for investors to sell into strength," says Desmond, who regards Tuesday's NYSE activity as a landmark day. The October 1987 stock market crash led to numerous 90 percent downside days that eventually triggered bargain-hunting by patient investors.