Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5276)	9/3/2002 10:45:41 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95572

Semico sees 2003 recovery, but is down on 300-mm and 3G Semiconductor Business News (09/03/02 04:27 p.m. EST) PHOENIX -- Providing a sneak preview for an event on Wednesday, Semico Research Corp. here today apparently lowered its overall semiconductor forecast for 2002, but remains bullish for 2003. Semico also appears to be pessimistic about several markets that were expected to provide growth for the IC industry, such as 300-mm, third-generation (3G) wireless, and intellectual-property (IP). But the Phoenix-based market research firm is upbeat about select memory markets, including flash and the 400-MHz version of double-data-rate (DDR) SDRAM technology. Originally, in May, Semico predicted that chip sales would bounce back from the severe 2001 recession with 17% growth in 2002 (see May 3 story ). During a conference in Santa Clara on Wednesday, however, Semico will forecast that the “worldwide semiconductor market will bounce back from a disastrous 2001 and a moderate 2002 to register a 30% growth next year.” Semico appears to have lowered its bullish 2002 forecast, although calls to the firm have not been returned. "Our forecast is based on unit forecasts derived from semiconductor consumption in end-use markets, which has proven to be extremely accurate,” said Jim Feldhan, president of Semico, in a statement. “Semico's end-use market analysis, coupled with Semico's Inflection Point Indicator (IPITM) long-term forecasting tool point to a solid recovery next year," he said. Other key predications at the Wednesday event include the following: The IP market will consolidate by 50% by 2006. Lack of a "killer application" leaves the 3G market in limbo. Strongest growth forecast in the probe test segment for all types of ATE equipment. Flash revenue will exceed DRAM revenue in 2006. More life for DDR-1 400. No market for 300-mm today.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5276)	9/3/2002 10:53:56 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95572

Don, I think there is a good chance we gap lower tomorrow. If we do the SOX could start below its previous 52 week low of 282.75. Short term we are already oversold. So we could rally out of it for a while. Maybe a few hours or even a few days. Bottom line though is that the technical damage that is being done is a warning that we have even more new lows ahead. On the VIX chart I guess you can't see the 10 day EMA that I hoped you would. Fear is way out of its channel which also seems to suggest that it is overdone. A short term rally could be coming allowing the VIX to fall back towards its 10 day moving average. It will fail in my opinion. Sorry my chart did not show up better. RtS