To: isopatch who wrote (18236 ) 9/4/2002 12:00:45 PM From: Roebear Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 36161 isopatch, As you know, I bailed on my remaining SWC position yesterday for a very nice 4 figure profit which would have been reversed had I held until today's bottom (so far). As everyone should know by now, I don't make a habit of posting real time anymore and do not intend to. Hence, this is not investment advice of any kind:) The tape saved me for one thing, on the tape I scented distribution yesterday, besides that, a desire to take profits to bolster portfolio and garner ammo to avoid being shook out in my remaining energy positions (which I like LT). So partly smell and partly luck or smelly luck, whatever works, ggg. BTW, the energy positions are being shook pretty hard last two days. My read on this? I have never seen evidence of the inventory figures being leaked. However the hard fall on energy stocks has increased my contrarian sense, with war in Iraq looming, I would not be surprised if the inventory figures are positive. Also with a hot September forecast for most of US (I agree this far on the forecasts), the weather looks supportive. Speaking of the weather, looks like I didn't make my August 31 timeline for the winter forecast. Both models (old and new) are having a belly ache when fed the latest weather data gruel. Consequently, the only thing I can prognosticate at this point is that I see a large change coming in the overall weather pattern bias, but cannot say with certainty if the models will ultimately burp hot or cold. What this means is there is a possibility of a substantial climactic change looming, but at this point I cannot quantify the probability or the direction of change(though I expect the scope far exceeds my forecast area), no matter how many coats of paint I put on the Hex signs. Best Regards, Roebear