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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: epsteinbd who wrote (42003)	9/4/2002 6:31:41 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Interesting article on European diplomatic posturing re. Iraq that appeared in Jordan Times. Says that the Euroweenies will support an Inspections Now! security council motion, and Germany's on board, though still claiming not to be. Naturally, they insist that all the Arab states are perfectly sincere in all their diplomatic pronouncements. I tell you, Bush is stupid like a fox. If he had come out for Inspections Now! With Likely War to Follow, all the Euroweenies would now be against it. ___________________________________________________________ Road-map emerging for final diplomatic push on Iraq By Paul Taylor Reuters BRUSSELS — Despite transatlantic friction over US war talk on Iraq, a road-map is emerging for a final diplomatic push to get UN arms inspectors back into Baghdad before any military action, European diplomats say. Under a plan that European Union foreign ministers will discuss with US Secretary of State Colin Powell in New York next week, a new mandatory Security Council resolution would be adopted within two months demanding that Iraq unconditionally readmit weapons monitors. That would put the onus on Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to cooperate quickly with the international community or face likely military consequences, the sources said. Powell said in a weekend BBC interview Washington wanted the return of inspectors to assess Saddam's alleged weapons of mass destruction capacity as a “first step” to settling the crisis. He appeared to contradict US Vice President Dick Cheney, who argued last week that sending inspectors back was pointless and pressed the case for a preemptive strike to remove Saddam. The EU narrowed its internal differences over Iraq at a weekend meeting in Denmark by shifting the focus off the “regime change” sought by the United States towards an unanimous push for the return of the inspectors. Diplomats said Britain, which has been most supportive of Washington, and France, often critical of US Iraq policy, were working closely together and might co-sponsor a resolution in a bid to display the unity of the international community. Russia, China seen accepting Russia, which has often shielded Iraq from Western pressure in the past, would be unlikely to veto such a resolution if it contained no explicit military threat, given President Vladimir Putin's cooperation with Washington in the fight against “terrorism,” they said. China, the other permanent member of the Security Council, would probably abstain on past form, they added. In the run-up to a Sept. 22 general election, Germany has publicly rejected any military action or ultimatum but participants at the EU meeting in Elsinore said Berlin accepted the diplomatic road-map. “There was an agreement that to impose pressure, you cannot exclude any action. One country (Germany) was not willing to say in public that it agreed with this, but it didn't object to the analysis,” one EU diplomat said. Diplomats said Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz's new talk of willingness to cooperate with the United Nations after he met UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on Tuesday showed that Baghdad was feeling the heat and realised it had to give ground on inspections if it wanted to avert a US military strike. They said Powell's comments, following recent remarks by President George W. Bush indicating a willingness to be patient and consult allies on Iraq, showed that Washington too realised it needed to allow room for diplomacy. Arab and Muslim states, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey, have all publicly warned Bush against attacking Iraq. “Most people in Washington now realise that the United States cannot afford to go it alone on Iraq. They may not need allies militarily, but they need political support in Europe and the Middle East,” one senior European diplomat said. Asked whether the Europeans were certain the US government backed a diplomatic road-map, he said: “We assume Colin Powell is speaking for the whole administration but we will only know for sure when Bush addresses the United Nations on Sept. 12.” The president is expected to set out his policy on Iraq in that speech, a day after the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, which his more hawkish advisers see as justifying a preemptive war to oust Saddam. EU seeks legal basis Diplomats said the fact that EU foreign ministers were able to debate Iraq at all was progress, since differences between Britain and most of its partners had previously been so wide as to preclude efforts to forge a common European position. Participants said the European ministers were in broad agreement on the need to go through the United Nations, as the highest expression of international legality, and of the need to show evidence of Iraq's unconventional warfare capability. “No one saw regime change in itself as a legitimate reason for a military strike. Everyone agreed it was a nasty regime and it is up to Saddam to prove he doesn't have WMD and he must cooperate fully with the United Nations,” one diplomat said. “We have to do this legally, one step at a time. Given public sensitivity, no one can skip two steps,” another added. Iraqi efforts to lobby the Europeans and Russia against US policy were gaining little traction. Anti-war Belgium gave visiting Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri a blunt warning to readmit arms inspectors in July, and his efforts to visit France and Germany have so far found no welcome mat, the sources said. Wednesday, September 4, 2002 jordantimes.com