Also FWIW from Kavkaz.org>>War in Iraq and Georgia will start at the same time
Propagandist preparation to the invasion of Georgia is now strengthening in Russia. Last week Russian mass media reported about the sociological poll of the population, which is supposed to unambiguously testify that the country is ready to give a carte blanche to the Kremlin for the new «victorious war» in Caucasus.
Thus, according to the data from the sociological polls, about a half of the Russians believe that Georgian authorities are able to fight Chechens who are in the Pankisi Gorge, but are unwilling to do so. 47% of Russians, polled by the «Fond Obschestvennoe Mnenie» (Public Opinion Foundation), have expressed that point of view in August.
20% of the respondents are convinced that Georgia is not able or willing to fight Chechens because of the weak army and incapability of doing anything to Chechen fighters. And only 15% of poll participants believe that the Georgian government is willing to fight Chechens.
At the same time, 45% believe that Russia should fight Chechens on Georgian territory (25% added that it can only be done with the sanction from Georgian government), 37% believe that military operations on Georgian soil should not be conducted, and 19% find it hard to answer.
As far as the air raids on the Pankisi Gorge go, which are being conducted by Russian aircraft, 46% of the poll participants do not believe it ever happened. 19% hold the opposite opinion, 35% find it hard to answer.
Kavkaz Center asked the Chief of the Service of External Information of Ichkeria, Mr. Movladi Udugov, to comment on these figures.
«We have all the grounds to believe that the Kremlin intends to intrude into the territory of Georgia as soon as the US starts a military campaign against Iraq. These are not just words. Our assumptions are based on operative data from intelligence services and on the information from some Russian officers who cooperate with us».
«Quoted figures of the so-called sociological poll only confirm our fears. Everything is actually ready for an invasion. The Kremlin is just waiting for a good opportunity, right time and proper international situation. So far the US position is holding them back, but once the war with Iraq starts, Washington will have no time for Georgia. As far as Europe goes, it actually gave Georgia up. This is the only way you can interpret the recent statement made by the European Union that the EU is not taking sides in the Russian-Georgian conflict. This unexpectedly demonstrative neutrality is nothing but a hint that Georgia should not expect any serious help from Europe».
«We also know a rough scenario of the strike on Georgia. Moscow plans a series of mass air strikes using bombers and rockets in the Pankisi Gorge with the subsequent landing of commandos. Depending on the consequences of that strike and on how the situation further unfolds, Moscow at the same time initiates military operations in the Kodori Gorge. Passing themselves off as Abkhaz armed formations, Russian troops will strike Georgian units in Kodori after accusing Tbilisi of the escalation of tension using the factor of «Chechen militants» or some bloody provocation».
«The Kremlin scenario of strike on Georgia will imply subsequent «pursuit of retreating terrorists», who will probably «penetrate» into Tbilisi and commit some horrible «terrorist act» there. It has been planned to get Russian troops, that are stationed in various bases in the Republic, involved in the military action against Georgia».
«There is another scenario which according to our information is being actively developed by Moscow after Georgian troops entered the Pankisi Gorge. According to this scenario, they are planning to carry out a bloody provocation against the Georgians, blame it on Chechens, and then «come and help the Georgians». In order to carry out that provocation, they are planning to use special diversionary terrorist units, including the ones that have Chechens who went through the training in the Prudboi camp in Volgograd Province».
«In this regard, in our point of view, it would be important to urgently organize joint patrolling of the territory together with the local population of the Pankisi Gorge, as well as [organizing] control at the checkpoints with getting people’s militias from among the locals involved in the ’anti-criminal operation’. But it can only be done with active participation of local population in the actions of the troops».
«Tbilisi should not count on the help from Washington at this stage. If the war against Iraq starts, the US will be too busy to adequately react to Russia’s actions. Besides that, because of the unfavorable foreign-policy situation and strong discontent of Arab states by Washington’s plans, the White House might
need Moscow’s loyalty for some period of time».
«After surrendering all its positions to the Americans in Central Asia and in other regions of the world, Moscow gets a chance to partially restore its reputation in Southern Caucasus, as soon as the war against Iraq starts. Taking into consideration the desposition of the Kremlin regime towards perpetrating military scams, and strengthening autonomy in the actions of Russian military higher-ups, the probability of Moscow’s aggressive actions towards Georgia is extremely high».
«The question arises whether you can prevent the threat of Russian intrusion into Georgia. The experience shows that the degree of Moscow’s aggressiveness proportionally depends on the opponent’s weakness and indecision. The weaker and more hesitant the opponent, the more aggressive the Kremlin is. And vice versa. In this regard, serious demonstration of Georgia’s abilities to fight the aggressor may become the holding factor, since protracted war may only aggravate Moscow’s position, since Moscow has unpredictable Chechen Mujahideen in its home front, and it can finally end up with the total de-invasion of Southern Caucasus. But in order to have the aggressor believe in the seriousness of Georgia’s intentions, Tbilisi must take the allies, who are really ready to fight, because they just have no other option. It is obvious that Chechens, including those who reside in the Pankisi Gorge, are such allies, since they are threatened with physical extermination when Russia invades».
«In our point of view, taking into consideration all these factors, you must stay away from the advices given by those politicians who may be pushing Georgian government to unreasoned or provocative actions in the Pankisi Gorge, which can later be used by the Kremlin to change the political regime in Tbilisi».
kavkaz.org |
