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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (39466)	9/5/2002 7:54:10 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 52237

you're always too extreame<g>...750 could be the target...i said could be...

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (39466)	9/5/2002 10:25:01 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Gersh, Have been looking for H&S patterns the size of the current $SPX and $WLSH ones (about 4 1/2 years), and haven't been able to find any, at least for the 105 years that the Dow has been around (the rails in 1884 was also a statistically valid average, but I have been unable to find a chart of them from 1884-1897). The closest I've found was a two-year pattern on the Dow from 1915-1917. As far as I can tell, 80-90% of the projected downside out of that pattern was reached, which would equate to 410-470 on the current S&P pattern. Here's the only chart I could find of that top that I could post: cache.wsrn.com It's possible that there were some spanning longer than that in the 1830s to 1850s, but anything before 1884 is someone's extrapolation of what happened: cache.wsrn.com