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To: marginmike who wrote (190620)9/5/2002 9:25:43 AM
From: stan_hughes  Respond to of 436258
 
I'm saying what everyone else is saying, I think --

(a) that the low rates are displacing no-risk renters into an equity risk position as owners

(b) that if we aren't there already, we will soon exhaust the marginal supply of new buyers, i.e. anybody that wants to buy a house will have done so. It is typical of late stage R/E markets to find people flipping the same properties amongst themselves, as there are no real new buyers -- it's virtually the same action as a stock market top

(c) a large proportion of the new buyers probably don't understand what they're really getting into, and therefore haven't planned for how they will deal with any change in their plans

(d) once the ball starts rolling downhill, the lack of liquidity inherent to real estate is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the ass. Anyone who has guaranteed a mortgage commitment is going to find themsleves covering the mark for collateral that isn't even close to the size of the debt