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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (18368)	9/5/2002 12:29:28 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 36161

Roe... re: the OSX trade The problem is that the OSX could collapse to sub 50 if the broad market tanks; as easily as it could pop back to 100 as the action in Iraq unfolds.... Usually we've had isolated risks that are unique to the oilpatch to worry about, or factor in... what's different here & now - is the broad spectrum of external factors such as significant continued broad market risk along with innumerable Rogue Wave Event risks... it makes playing these interim trades doubly risky... Imho; if I play them - I now play them in 5-10%/maybe 10-20% portfolio increments. It was tough enough trading individual sectors on and against their own fundamentals... now we have terrorism, bio & nuclear risk along with all the other internal market dynamics that have arrived and that are still unfolding. It's a bitch when you can't believe the numbers... the DOW sounds cheap when it's approaching October 1998 meltdown levels... but, you have to wonder if the numbers were even real, or accurate that we were using in 1998 (VBG) !?!?!? When the Risk to Reward meter is no longer pegged heavilly to the High Reward - Low/Moderate risk levels; but instead whenever High Reward is always accompanied by High RISK - if you're gonna play - just play much, much smaller imho. ....this is one tough, volatile and risky market. I'm taking Barbara Bush's advice and whenever possible - just SAYING NO ! (vbg). My primary concept is defense via Gold/Silver and my offensive strategy is primarilly built around hoardes of Cash and patience... Just when it seems like things are beginning to bottom, or turn - another pillar to the economy, or geopolitical environment falls... Very logical and commonsense arguements can be made for DOW 7500 as having been the bottom - although a re-test forthcoming is nearly a given here; but an equally valid arguement can be made for DOW 5000, or an S&P sub-500...tough, tough market conditions. For Traders - taking those 10-20% DCB's and banking them seems to be a prerequisite for survival on BOTH the long and shortsides. I think we'll ultimately arrive at a time and place where having signifcant CASH is the key...to be able to seize a historic opportunity... hopefully we'll all have the patience to wait to deploy it..