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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (42138)	9/5/2002 12:38:41 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

David Warren is interesting today on the weighing of risks in the coming conflict At the risk of frightening some readers, it should also be noted that the unpublicized U.S. build-up in the region has been carefully scattered. As I now understand, while the advantage of not putting "all the eggs in one basket" is self-explanatory, there is an especially urgent reason for this. At any moment, before or after the first formal U.S. strike, Saddam is likely to try to hit any U.S. base he can reach with biological or chemical weapons. He cannot be left in a position where a single "lucky strike" could knock out a substantial part of the U.S. force arrayed against him. By saying this, I point directly to the problem the Bush administration has, in preparing the world for what is to come. They cannot be entirely candid about the enemy's potential strengths, without giving arguments to the "peace constituency". And yet it is precisely because of the hideous and growing capabilities of Saddam and other regional psychopaths, that the U.S. has no choice but to act -- once again, sooner not later. In effect, both sides in the debate are wrong -- the people who think Iraq will be a cakewalk, and therefore ask, "What are we waiting for?"; and the people who think, we mustn't attack because it might unleash forces larger than we can contain. The truth, as I understand it, is opposite both propositions: it won't necessarily be a cakewalk, but the U.S. must attack before its enemies are in a position to wreak even greater havoc. The longer he waits, the bigger the final conflagration, and Mr. Bush knows it. www.davidwarrenonline.com