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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim black who wrote (23166)	9/5/2002 6:41:45 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jim. We might have to meet in the middle. Okay, a radioactive pollution device would create a lot of media coverage and make life difficult and be disruptive. The TT attack aftermath was worse than the actual attack. 2 x buildings worth $3 billion sure-net.com 3,000 people worth $6 billion [injuries were negligible as people either lived or died, other than a tiny proportion]. Incidentals $1 billion Total cost = $10 billion. Per American at 300 million [throw in a few Kiwis] = $30 each. A piffling amount. The event was trivial in the grand scheme of things. What is more important is the reaction to it by the USA and world. I'd say the disruption due to 'Homeland Security' has probably exceeded that. Then, throw in the military manoeuvres and other drama and the cost zooms further. Then throw in funk and economic malaise and the cost goes up more. However, humans being what we are, that'll all slide into the background noise in which we live and life will go on. The few days of market closure and downward blip won't be detectable when the Nasdaq and Dow graphs are viewed 10 years from now, let alone 20. True, the USA isn't notable for subtlety and most Americans would have trouble spelling it, let alone doing it. But that's not necessarily always bad. Subtlety can be overdone. Sometimes there's a need to simply kick the dunny door down and take over. That can't be done subtly, which would also be tough for most to spell. True, Waco was not a very successful rescue of children, which was allegedly the intention. The mess in the Iranian desert wasn't a good copy of the Entebbe raid. [I think Jewish soldiers have higher IQs than American, on average]. A submarine charging up into a fishing boat wasn't that clever. Drunk Exxon Valdez driving wasn't that great. Ignoring cold o-rings on the Space Shuttle was a bad idea. But those instances are few and far between. There are vast successes filling the gap between the failures. Being Gung Ho gets stuff happening. Fear of failure is paralyzing. I think it would take a pretty big bang to make Americans panic now. After the most spectacular attack, in the midst of the biggest market collapse in human history [for total size, if not percentage], the USA basically cruised through it unscathed. A year on and the USA has adapted to reduced capital values and expectations. It would take quite a jolt to get people as excited now. The market clearing is well over 2 years old now. Okay, I also agree that George II doesn't really come across all that great as a leader, despite some bluff talk and misunderestimation. Osama actually seems more like a leader - I can see how he gets followers. Anyway, I'm not too worried about more attacks. The Shoe Bomber was laughable. They might be able to pull off a fertilizer bomb or two, like Tim McVeigh. Maybe even throw a bit of anthrax around. Big deal. It'll give Americans a focal point instead of worrying about more trivial stuff such as the price of number 7 eggs and Oprah makeovers. Americans will soon rally around. In the end, the Matrix of Malevolence losers lose because destroyers and thieves can only succeed while there's something to destroy and steal. As the targets get fewer and harder, their attacks will become more pathetic and more difficult. They'll gradually be eliminated by the 6 billion non-terrorists. They don't have the numbers. We'll swamp them. They hit the jackpot with a fat, dumb and happy soft target whose policy was to surrender to any hijackers armed with a nail file and ask for the destination. But now, good luck to taking over an aircraft with a box-cutter or even 3 guys with pistols. They'd have to get through the cockpit door and face a madman with a fire axe while they are busy getting through. Meanwhile, the passengers would be going ape, hurling everything from duty free booze to pillows, blankets and carry on baggage. They wouldn't be able to fire their guns from under the heap of stuff. Then, 10 big Yanks would sit on their heads until getting back to base [assuming they weren't shot with their own guns first]. Meanwhile, another day, another decline ... I'll have to play the hero and borrow and buy if this keeps going on. Ah, noble me... Mqurice