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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mannie who wrote (5827)	9/5/2002 4:28:37 PM
From: surfbaron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Scott: A dictator is not someone I give a crap to understand. Name a reformed dictator. You dismiss Cuba and other regimes Carter has vistited with as merely having differences with us. Do you think they showed him the evil.

To: Mannie who wrote (5827)	9/5/2002 11:03:05 PM
From: abuelita	Respond to of 89467

bravo scooter. that's the idea. Saddam will be irrelevant in no time. human kindness - that's the only thing that will work. really, it's not rocket science is it. rosita

To: Mannie who wrote (5827)	9/5/2002 11:24:51 PM
From: crdesign	Respond to of 89467

You Da Man! Too tired too type but I wholeheartedly agree. Been makin love with a heat gun to old paint. Tim

To: Mannie who wrote (5827)	9/6/2002 12:38:21 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Why the Gold Cartel Will Fail to Prevent a Primary Gold Bull Market The Real WHY They Are Trying to Prevent it by James Sinclair & Harry Schultz September 3, 2002 JP Morgan/Chase appears to be the main member by accident or by intention of the Gold Dealers short seller's club. JPM (NYSE Symbol for JP Morgan/Chase) has received, in our opinion, from Central Banks, lease agreements, whereby they are able to receive physical bullion from the central bank paying now 3/4 of 1% per annum. JPM and/or their clients are free to use or sell this gold in any manner they want. JPM themselves or on behalf of their clients appear to have used it to sell violently at key technical points. $312.50 to $314.80 (today) -$315 & $329.50-$330, thereby depressing the gold price. Recently, Moody's Credit Rating Service downgraded JP Morgan/Chase's credit rating. Following that, Standard & Poor's Credit Service downgraded JP Morgan/Chase's credit standing based on specific derivative positions. The actual figure of derivative positions on the book of JP Morgan/Chase can be found registered at the office of the Controller of the US Currency. The Controller of the US Currency reports to the IMF which shares its data with the BIS. Therefore, the positions carried by JP Morgan/Chase is public, but the public has no real idea on how to find it (or what it means). The total of all derivatives on the books of JP Morgan/Chase on all underlying assets is $24 Trillion US dollars. Yes, 24 Trillion. The size of the Gold Derivatives on JP Morgan/Chase's books is $46,000,000,000 - $60,000,000,000, depending on valuation methods. Yes, $46 to $60 Billion. All gold derivative dealers use "Risk Control Software" to manage their gold positions. This program maintains the risk of the gold derivative to the dealer according to the risk percentage that is decided upon by the trading management at the inception of the transactions. All the gold derivatives on the books of JP Morgan/Chase are short spreads. That means short of gold. If they were not short spreads, then JP Morgan/Chase would be extraordinarily pleased by the rise in the gold price and publicly bullish in their reports (which they are not). The size of the total international position of short spread gold derivatives is US Dollars $300,000,000,000 according to IMF and BIS reports. If you convert $300,000,000,000 into ounces of gold at the present gold price, it equates to 900,000,000 ounces. As gold hit $305, it triggered the logic of the "Risk Control Programs" to buy gold to maintain the risk exposure of the gold derivative short spreads for the gold dealers cabal/cartel of which J.P. Morgan/Chase is, in our opinion, a major player, if not the main player. As gold, with the help of the cartel, dropped from the high $320s, "Risk Control Programs" triggered selling of gold for the same reason. At $302-$305 "Risk control Programs" returned to neutral. Now you can understand the action of the gold market clearly. If Gold closes above $330, the "Risk Control Programs" will start to demand that for each ounce of gold sold short in the short gold spreads, the dealers must own long approximately .623 ounces of gold. At a close at/or above $354, the gold dealers cabal/cartel's "Risk Control Programs" will call for approximately .986 ounces of gold long for each ounce short on the gold derivative short spreads. .986 ounces is practically one to one - one ounce short to one ounce long required to maintain solvency by "Risk Control Programs" at $354 gold. If you equate the demand to the number of ounces of gold that would be created by a close at or above $354 by the "Risk Control Program" used by all commercial banks, gold banks and gold dealers in the gold derivative business, the number comes out to slightly above 886,325,000 ounces of gold. That number exceeds all the gold that all the central banks on the planet have in their possession including all the gold they have leased and not accounted for. Therefore, at $354, gold will have to go ballistic in price &/or the greatest bankruptcy in history will occur for the gold derivative dealers. It is not the gold derivative position that worries the major investment banks that are the parents of the subsidiaries which are the exposed gold dealers. It is not the $46 billion to $60 billion in gold derivatives on the books of JP Morgan/Chase that worries them. It is the effect of an explosion in the gold derivatives on the balance of the US Dollar 23.7 Trillion in other derivatives on the books of JP Morgan that worries JP Morgan/Chase, IMO. This is why JP Morgan/Chase and their other gold dealer cartel members are stopping gold at $312.50 to $314.80 today (as this is written) with the help, IMO, of central banks. Such a manipulation to prevent the gold market from rising above $354 will fail because history tells us that no manipulation ever attempted has stopped a primary, fundamentally-driven bull or bear market in anything. The two greatest traders that ever lived, (both expired), Bertram J. Seligman and Jesse Livermore taught that a successful manipulation must always be in the direction that the market wants to take -- fundamentally and technically. Any other manipulation not only fails, a manipulation against the fundamental and technical desire of a market will also create a coiled market that goes further in the direction of its intention than it would have gone in the first place. Therefore, the result of the attempt by the gold cartel to hold the market down will be to propel it higher than it would have gone earlier. To complicate the problem, most gold derivatives outstanding today are as follows: Non-transparent. Unregulated. Unlisted. Not clearinghouse funded. Not market priced. Generally non-transferable as many are specific performance contractual obligations. Without standard so that closing can't be made at will. Totally dependent on the balance sheet of the granting entity. Granting gold bank entities generally non-guaranteed as to trade debt, subsidiaries of international investment and commercial banks holding companies. Now totaling $300,000,000 notional value internationally. Approximately 89% of these transaction have been done with entities that have nothing to do with the mining industry as counter party to the gold bank derivative dealer. Therefore, the gold market has come under continued selling by those entities (gold banks/gold dealers) who will suffer the most, assuming -- and we do -- that gold is in a Primary Fundamental Gold Market based on the "5 Fundamental Reasons" that sustain such an event. The 5 Keys to a Long Term Bull Market in Gold on www.financialsense.com A. The US Current Account must be in a deficit position and growing. Yes, this is a present condition and shows no fundamental signs of reversing for a significant time. This is the account that measures the amount of US dollars in the hands of non-US entities. It is usually invested primarily in US Federal Debt instruments. B. An intact negative trend in the US Dollar overall must exist. It should have the characteristics of a bear market. This is in fact true for the US Dollar today. We have a classic long-term top called a Head & Shoulders formation, which was subsequently confirmed by price and volume action. Even dollar bulls now are looking only for the dollar to stabilize at lower levels. This criterion is in place for a long-term bull market in gold. C. The general commodity market is showing in many ways, both fundamentally and technically, that it is in a base formation from which one can expect higher prices. We shall discuss the technical characteristics further to sustain that this ingredient has begun to support gold long term. D. Trust in paper assets must be waning for gold to assume an investment role internationally. We see the recent decision against Andersen, the comments on GE & IBM accounting practices and Enron as examples of causative items, which have turned investors away from the absolute belief, in existence from 1980 until now, that paper assets were storehouses of value. We believe this ingredient is in favor of gold's long-term bull market. E. The momentum in the appreciation of the bond market must be decelerating. We see this ingredient as becoming positive now to a long-term bull market in gold. These five items, as they gain in strength, will further accelerate the underpinnings of a long-term market in gold. It was the forming of these constituents of a long-term bull market in gold that has given rise to the move of gold from $260 to $330. Therefore, the Gold Cartel is in Harm's Way. A bankruptcy of the derivative dealers who represent, in part, 72 Trillion Dollars of derivative positions (called by Buffett - "Sewage") of the highest mountain of debt ever created on Earth is the reason why gold could go to $1450 -- $1700. When gold reached $887.50 in March of 1980, $900 was the price that would have balanced the balance sheet of the USA defined as the comparison between Federal asset gold and external debt obligations. If a derivative failure was to happen in the next 5 years, it would -- depending on when it happened -- produce a number between $1450 and $1700 on gold to balance the balance sheet of the US as described above.

To: Mannie who wrote (5827)	9/6/2002 12:40:45 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

Brazil Bonds, Currency Fall on Signs Lula May Win in 1st Round By Michael Smith Rio de Janeiro, Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian bonds posted their biggest slide in three weeks on concern the presidential candidate favored by most investors won't be able to close the gap on his leading rival. Jose Serra has pulled into a statistical tie with Popular Socialist Ciro Gomes for second place, while still trailing frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by 17 percentage points, according to a Vox Populi poll. The survey showed Lula's support rising, boosting concern the Workers' Party candidate may be elected outright in the Oct. 6 voting and eliminating the need for a second-round vote on Oct. 27. ``Each day it seems more difficult for Serra to beat Lula,'' said Clive Botelho, treasury director at the Sao Paulo bank Banco Santos. Brazil's currency has lost 19 percent of its value in three months on concern that if Lula or Gomes wins, the new president would increase spending to fund campaign pledges, sapping funds needed to avert the biggest debt default ever. Brazil's debt has tripled during President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's eight-year term to about 1.1 trillion reais ($354 billion). If Lula ``rises further in polls, strengthening his chances to win election, markets may get more stressed,'' said Miguel Sano, fund manager of fixed income with Sul America Investimentos in Sao Paulo. The benchmark 8 percent bond maturing in 2014 fell 3.76 cents on the dollar to 60.13, the largest decline since Aug. 12, at 4 p.m. New York time. At that price, the bond's yield rose to 19.93 percent. Defending Real Central bank President Arminio Fraga said today that Brazil may use money part of $30 billion in International Monetary Fund credit pledged last month to fight the slide in the real. ``There is a precedent for that (using IMF funds to defend the currency) if the situation makes it necessary,'' Fraga said on a conference call with banks and brokerages with offices in Brazil. The central bank suggested it sold dollars, saying it ``acted'' in the currency markets, as the real weakened 1.3 percent to 3.1 to the dollar. Bonds also fell on concern the government won't be able to roll over 8.6 billion reais ($2.6 billion) in bonds coming due tomorrow and may have to tap its reserves to pay the debt, investors said. Last month, Brazil rolled over less than a fifth of the more than 18 billion reais in Treasury bonds that came due. Brazilian officials recently said they have the cash to cover debt payments until after the election, and last month the International Monetary Fund and Brazil reached a $30 billion loan agreement to help ease a cash crunch through next year. Elections Today's Vox Populi poll showed the ruling coalition's Serra rising to 19 percent from 15 percent in the previous survey, Globo Television said, with Gomes falling to 20 percent and Lula adding 2 percentage points to 36 percent. Bonds had surged for two weeks as Serra gained on No. 2 candidate Gomes in the polls, driving interest rates lower and slowing growth in the country's 1.1 trillion reais ($339 billion) public debt. ``There's concern Lula could win in the first round,'' said Dominique Audin, who helps manage $60 million of securities for Pictet Asset Management in London. ``The (benchmark) bond is at too high a price for this scenario.'' Gomes and Lula have promised repeatedly to honor debt obligations and abide by the terms the IMF loan agreement. ``We think all contracts should be honored and carried out,'' Lula said in a televised debate among the four leading candidates last night. Serra plans to focus on making it to a run-off against Lula, who's lost the last three presidential elections. If no candidate gets more than half the votes on Oct. 6, the election goes to a second round on Oct. 27.

To: Mannie who wrote (5827)	9/9/2002 9:24:57 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

It remains to be seen whether we'll be better because of 9/11 By HUBERT G. LOCKE SPECIAL TO THE POST-INTELLIGENCER Sunday, September 8, 2002 In the 200-plus years of our nation's history, there have been three occasions when an event occurred that reshaped or radically altered our view of ourselves as Americans and of our place in the world. Each occasion has been a defining moment for this country, one in which we experienced a certain loss of national innocence -- a shattering of some pervasive myth about who we are and what we imagine our national destiny to be. On the first two occasions -- because we were forced to shed some illusions about ourselves -- we emerged a stronger, better nation. In the third case, it remains to be seen whether we will be either better or stronger -- the jury is still out. All three occasions witnessed a violent attack on the United States. Americans would like to believe episodes of massive violence can plague other bellicose parts of the planet but are events to which we are -- or ought to be -- geographically immune. Two oceans and an almost endless land border with friendly neighbors had given us a false sense of security that all three events shattered decisively. Each occasion -- each a physical assault on our country -- led to war. On the first occasion, in the spring of 1861, a group of secessionist firebrands attacked Fort Sumter, S.C. It was the opening shot in the Civil War -- a conflict in which the very idea of the United States -- the "one nation indivisible" that we imagined ourselves to be -- was shattered by the discovery that our foes were our fellow Americans. At Fort Sumter, we met the enemy and in the immortal words of Pogo, he turned out to be us. The second occasion -- the bombing of Pearl Harbor -- was a blow to our national assumption that we could exist as a nation apart and aloof from the rest of the world and its turmoil. It was almost the midpoint of the last century before we came to see that we are not a fortress of wealth and prosperity in the world that can ignore the conditions of life for people elsewhere. The world's woes-- its seemingly endless conflicts and crimes against the highest human ideals -- present challenges and issues we cannot avoid. We've had exactly a year to think about the third defining moment in our history -- what everyone is content to refer to simply as "9/11." It has shattered our national sense of invincibility and has left us feeling uncertain about our future. It has also plunged us into a war quite unlike anything we have previously experienced -- a war in which we face no opposing army but dread another attack, and one in which we've ostensibly vanquished our immediate foes but a war that we are told will last indefinitely. War has a strange effect on people. It can engender a sense of patriotism and willingness on the part of citizens to make great personal sacrifices in order regain the peace and restore the nation's security. But it can unleash a mood of vengefulness and hostility quite out of keeping with a country's normal character. Every war has its enemy -- and once identified and depicted -- anyone or anything resembling or reminiscent of that enemy can become subject to deep suspicion, if not outright scorn. "During the Civil War," writes the noted southern historian Clement Eaton, "Northern travelers, schoolteachers, peddlers and workmen in the South were in constant danger of being brought before vigilance committees, flogged and expelled . . . on the basis of unfounded suspicions. . . . Such a flagrant violation of civil liberties was sanctioned by the legal authorities and by popular opinion in general." After the bombing of Pearl Harbor in 1941, suspicion and scorn combined to facilitate rounding up and shipping off thousands of Americans of Japanese descent to desert prisons euphemistically termed internment camps. Today, billboards and lapel pins proclaim "united we stand" but they belie a nation that is far from one mind about our response to the tragedy of 9/11. Some are tempted to subject people from the Middle East to the same scorn and suspicion that Northerners endured 140 years ago and Japanese Americans faced 60 years ago. Others are scornful of those who express the slightest misgivings about the nation's war on terrorism or its proposed war on Iraq. Still others are dismayed by the flagwaving and war drumbeating and suggest this is an opportune -- indeed, long overdue -- moment in our history to stop and consider why our nation, its policies and its way of life are the source of so much anger in other parts of the world. Two sentiments have seemed to surface and to compete with each other whenever we have been at war in America. One is that expressed by Stephen Douglas, who won the Senate race in Illinois against Abraham Lincoln in 1858 but lost the race for the presidency to Lincoln in 1860. As the Civil War broke out, he stoutly declared, "There can be no neutrals in this war -- only patriots -- or traitors." Alternatively, shortly after the end of World War II, George Kennan, U.S. ambassador to Russia and one of the keenest of the Cold War strategists, warned that "something may occur in our own minds and souls which will make us no longer like the persons by whose efforts this republic was founded and held together, but rather like representatives of that very power we are trying to combat: intolerant, secretive, suspicious, cruel, and terrified of internal dissension because we have lost our own belief in ourselves and in the power of our ideals." It remains to be seen which of these sentiments we will honor -- on these two alternatives, the jury is also still out. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hubert G. Locke of Seattle is a retired professor and former dean of the Daniel J. Evans Graduate School of Public Affairs at the University of Washington. seattlepi.nwsource.com