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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (14527)	9/6/2002 10:44:52 AM
From: CYBERKEN	Respond to of 19219

Spoken like a true "Bond King". All one can say is "Keep a good thought."...

To: Softechie who wrote (14527)	9/8/2002 12:25:52 PM
From: CYBERKEN	Respond to of 19219

The flaw, which I believe is self-serving, because Gross is a bright and shrewd guy, is looking at 1900 as some sort of heavenly base, from which equities must either outperform or not. The true test is from 1925, giving you all the 20th Century bubbles, along with wars, depressions, etc., but a long enough period so that the sum of those parts aren't as important as the overall direction of world economic history. Also missing from Mr. Gross' self-serving argument is the most critical piece: analysis of continuous overlapping periods, as opposed to one arbitrary starting point. Much, thus, could be presented showing Gross as having a "boomer moment" rather than any kind of insight (or, more specifically, swayed by a piece of fiction that he really enjoyed reading). Suffice it to say that, since 1925, there have been a total of TWO 10-year periods where the S & P 500 declined, net, from start to end, and NO 15-year periods where that occurred. Bonds are somewhat of a safe harbor, a great place for someone who starts out with a wagonload of $$ to park 30% to 40%. But the FUTURE is always in equities, unless one is inclined to bet against the free world and the human race itself. In the current era, there are some who do indeed make that bet. They can make it alone, as far as I'm concerned...