Some good comments by den Beste on the new proposals for "muscular inspectors":
It's finally sinking in amongst some that the only way they can dissuade the Bush administration is by coming up with a viable alternative, and the ones proposed so far don't cut it. Most people are now coming to understand that the existing inspection protocol was a pointless waste of time, what with Iraq in some cases resisting inspections with force of arms. (There are reports during the 1990's of inspectors showing up at a facility only to have guards fire over their heads to keep them away, while others carried boxes of "something" out the back into waiting trucks to be carried away.)
The new grand plan goes like this: No invasion, no war, no attack. Instead, a force of 50,000 "coercive force" inspectors go into Iraq. They work under American command, but they will be drawn from many nations, and they will use deadly force if necessary to inspect wherever they want. And in order to get Iraq to agree to this, the US would have to "forswear any unilateral military action against Iraq for as long as the inspections are working."
The idea of a "muscular" inspection force has generated interest on Capitol Hill and among European governments. "In the broadest terms possible, the notion of some kind of U.N. ultimatum [to Hussein] is beginning to attract some of the European governments," a senior European diplomat said.
At a meeting of European Union foreign ministers last weekend, said another senior diplomat from the region, "the common denominator was that we can all agree on making a credible and strong pitch to take this issue up again at the U.N. and to try to get the inspectors back in."
As outlined by Boyd, the proposed force "would consist of modern air and land forces sufficient to impose entry into or destruction upon any potential weapons site or, with augmentation, transition into a credible invasion force." Its U.S. commander would have full authority to determine the force level necessary to protect itself and inspectors and "ensure immediate access" to any site, including immediate "destruction" of any opposing Iraqi forces.
The force, composed of air cavalry and at least four brigade-sized units stationed in Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, would likely number about 50,000, Boyd said in an interview yesterday. The report, he said, "didn't discuss rules of engagement. . . . I envision it as a force that would have the ability to choose its options."
washingtonpost.com
Simply unbelievable. There are so many fantasies involved in this plan as to suggest the use of illicit chemical substances by those who drafted it. Let's see:
Other nations would actually offer such forces.
They'd be willing to let Americans command them rather than have a Yugoslavia-style coalition command.
They'd be willing to let Americans order them into combat without the home government's approval.
They'd be willing to do this soon.
Iraq would be willing to let such a force in, soon.
The forces themselves would actually be trustworthy, and not tip off the Iraqis or accept bribes, and actually willing to fight if ordered to by Americans.
A force of 50,000 troops like this, split into brigades, wouldn't ever be subject to ambush.
The first time parts of it actually took substantial losses, everyone would stay the course.
And there's this one: America would be willing to accept any such lunacy.
The biggest problem of all with it, however, is that it assumes that such a force, which would take months to organize (during which time Iraq would be frantically hiding everything they could) would actually be able to find and destroy enough stuff soon enough to actually prevent Iraq from making a bomb.
The clock is ticking. No one outside Iraq actually knows how close they are to producing nuclear weapons, but I'm working on the basis of about three more years, though it could be sooner. Once that happens, everything changes.
The equipment to produce fissionable materials is relatively large and tends to consume a lot of power. But the critical components of a bomb are extremely small; they'll fit quite comfortably in the trunk of a car, and can be hidden nearly anywhere. Once they've been created, there's no hope whatever of finding them as long as the Baath government remains in charge.
Time is on Saddam's side; he's playing a delaying game. This multinational force idea is, in practice, a way to waste a year or two without yielding any tangible result, and we no longer have the luxury of time.
Those of us who advocate war are not opposed in principle to the idea of trying to use non-war means. It's just that we think that in this particular case it's too late for that. We've frittered away 12 years, and now time has run out. Either we invade, or we send Saddam a "Congratulations on the birth of your new bomb" card in the mail.
And if invasion causes angry European leaders, and international condemnation, and rioting in the streets of Paris, and several other Arab governments to fall, so be it.
denbeste.nu |
