SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Cactus Jack who wrote (5873)9/9/2002 11:04:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Hastings article is not for the illiterate or impatient
brilliant article, abstruce, difficult, theoretical
its main points carry severe warnings
constant federal bailouts of failing entities in the late 1990's encouraged wholly crippled entities to flourish temporarily
I believe 30% of the entire US economy is vulnerable to failure
faulty credit structures are the main cause of risk here

weather analogies work for me, learned from Puplava
imagine we could suspend all effects from windstorms, tornadoes, and the like upon the world of trees
bear with me, since I am going somewhere with this

now the world of trees, if we ascribe to them the ability to deal in crafty devious ways (as corporations do) would immediately embark on new growth of sick looking motherhumping limbs that offended nature (squelched for now) and extended as far as possible to grab sunshine and turn it into energy storage (profits, cashflow)

but the limb growth would resemble some of those southern plantation weeping willow 500-yr old trees with 18 bigass branches extended every which way
except our freakish trees would have grown in 5 months, or 5 years, not 500 years
their limbs would not succumb to the next hellacious wind storm, since the Federal Reserve just repealed the laws of economic nature
no, the ugly freakish limbs would spawn even more limbs, since their energy capturing features enabled more growth in the same unchecked manner

well, sooner or later, nature seeks its vengeance
and entire monster trees fail
e.g. Enron, WorldCom, GlobalXing
soon Uniphase? Ford? Xerox?
we have 100's of crippled freakish companies out there

LTCM was not permitted to fail
the lesson learned was that this intervention from natural consequences encouraged several more years of crippled distorted growth

Hastings implies that as credit spreads widen, derivative systemic risk rises
we are there, since spreads are at near historic highs now
watch out below
before long, mortgage rates will not follow Trez yields down lower
the risk of MortBackedSecurities is rising
that is why the rates are NOT coming down as much as the Trez now
smart investors are shedding their MBS for Trez, knowing that jobs are gonna suffer soon, taking with it real estate
/ jim