To: Cactus Jack who wrote (5873 ) 9/9/2002 11:04:00 AM From: Jim Willie CB Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467 Hastings article is not for the illiterate or impatient brilliant article, abstruce, difficult, theoretical its main points carry severe warnings constant federal bailouts of failing entities in the late 1990's encouraged wholly crippled entities to flourish temporarily I believe 30% of the entire US economy is vulnerable to failure faulty credit structures are the main cause of risk here weather analogies work for me, learned from Puplava imagine we could suspend all effects from windstorms, tornadoes, and the like upon the world of trees bear with me, since I am going somewhere with this now the world of trees, if we ascribe to them the ability to deal in crafty devious ways (as corporations do) would immediately embark on new growth of sick looking motherhumping limbs that offended nature (squelched for now) and extended as far as possible to grab sunshine and turn it into energy storage (profits, cashflow) but the limb growth would resemble some of those southern plantation weeping willow 500-yr old trees with 18 bigass branches extended every which way except our freakish trees would have grown in 5 months, or 5 years, not 500 years their limbs would not succumb to the next hellacious wind storm, since the Federal Reserve just repealed the laws of economic nature no, the ugly freakish limbs would spawn even more limbs, since their energy capturing features enabled more growth in the same unchecked manner well, sooner or later, nature seeks its vengeance and entire monster trees fail e.g. Enron, WorldCom, GlobalXing soon Uniphase? Ford? Xerox? we have 100's of crippled freakish companies out there LTCM was not permitted to fail the lesson learned was that this intervention from natural consequences encouraged several more years of crippled distorted growth Hastings implies that as credit spreads widen, derivative systemic risk rises we are there, since spreads are at near historic highs now watch out below before long, mortgage rates will not follow Trez yields down lower the risk of MortBackedSecurities is rising that is why the rates are NOT coming down as much as the Trez now smart investors are shedding their MBS for Trez, knowing that jobs are gonna suffer soon, taking with it real estate / jim