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To: GraceZ who wrote (190928)	9/6/2002 2:42:50 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

that's the problem with looking in the rear-view mirror ... sounds extremely foolish from that POV, but I am not shorting them two years ago -- I am shorting them now.

To: GraceZ who wrote (190928)	9/6/2002 2:53:39 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 436258

I remember seeing someplace that historically the homies peak at PE's of 3-4. I can't remember where it was. That's why everyone's been calling a top for so long. but knowing what we know about the credit bubble, it will end sometime. You just have to give yourself plenty of room in the shorts.

To: GraceZ who wrote (190928)	9/6/2002 3:49:41 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

would you buy them on this basis, Grace -- look like great relative values with respect to the other stuff -- or is that you buying them now? <vbg>

To: GraceZ who wrote (190928)	9/6/2002 10:35:22 PM
From: reaper	Respond to of 436258

<<would you tell me that's a decent place to start shorting? >> a list of stocks with PEs in the 7-8 range with PEGs in the .5 range yeah, actually i would. PEs in the 7-8 range often imply: (i) liquidity problems; (ii) nobody believes the estimates; and/or (and most likely) (iii) the company doesn't earn a return on capital that exceeds its cost of capital, thus the P&L 'earnings' are worthless on an economic basis (which of course leads to (i) and (ii) eventually) see F, GM, Delphi, Visteon, Metris, Americredit, Providian, Coca Cola Enterprises, Tyco, Hanover Compressor, all the merchant energy companies (Calpine, Mirant, NRG, Reliant), the airlines. the homebuilders will be on this list soon enough. Cheers