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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: long-gone who wrote (15341)	9/7/2002 8:11:22 AM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81639

long-gone >Then there should be no concern that the entire Islamic world will rush to his defense, can't have it both ways That is the contradiction. Unfortunately, because of Bush's proclamation about the "Axis of Evil" which includes Iraq, Iran and Syria and the recent litigation etc against Saudi Arabia because of 911, all the Arab nations now feel threatened. Traditional hostilities between these countries are, in fact, in the process of being broken and Saddam is making well-received overtures to Saudi, Kuwait and Iran. Indeed, if any country could be hospitable to Al Qaeda it is Iran because both are fundamentalist. Iran is a long-standing foe of the US but, strangely, a covert friend of Israel. Work that one out. All the Arab countries, ie Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan --- indeed, Saddam's neighbor's but certainly not his friends --- have made serious representations to Bush not to make war. And Egypt, too. Also the Kurds, who are Saddam's long-standing enemies, have requested that the US doesn't hit Saddam. Staunchly pro-West, but nevertheless Moslem, Turkey, which always does its best to be with the US, is very unhappy about the prospects for war, not the least being because, in the event of Iraq breaking up after the war, a Kurdish state would be most likely. As you know, the Kurds have a revolutionary movement in Turkey seeking "liberation" and the breaking-off of a part of Turkey as a Kurdish state. The Arab/Islamic world is very complex, especially to Western eyes, and that is why there can be many and serious and even unexpected consequences of a military strike on Iraq. Unquestionably, the US has overwhelming aerial and hi-tech weapons but that's not the end of the war, or the end of the problem. Don't forget that in Somalia the US was humiliated by an injudicious military escapade which involved ground troops and hand-to-hand fighting . And, to make matters worse right now, Afghanistan looks like it's cooking up again. You are not the only one who doesn't like Saddam --- in fact, I don't think anyone does. Just like my neighbor, Mugabe, he's a bastard tyrant. But because we recognize that and don't like him, it doesn't mean we should get our people killed by trying to get rid of him. No-one lives forever. Frankly, and this might sound very contrarian in the face of all the war-talk, I don't think there will be a war. I think the talk, the war posturing and the movement of troops in the region is a tactic which could have other objectives. Indeed, IMO, the real problem is Saudi Arabia where King Fahd is on his death-bed and it's not clear which prince will take over rule. Crown Prince Abdullah, the running favorite, is not pro-West and has already stated that he will renegotiate the oil contracts with Aramco & Co. He's the one who visits Bush at his farm. Maybe the US is worried that the vacuum created by the political uncertainty in Saudi will favor an opportunistic strike or coalition by Saddam. Whatever it is, the region is going to be very unstable for a long time. And, of course, all this is aggravated by the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, for which there seems to be no solution ie. one which will be accepted by the radicals on either side.