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Politics : Attack Iraq? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (600)	9/8/2002 11:28:39 AM
From: JEB	Respond to of 8683

U.S. Says Hussein Intensifies Quest for A-Bomb Parts By MICHAEL R. GORDON and JUDITH MILLER WASHINGTON, Sept. 7 — More than a decade after Saddam Hussein agreed to give up weapons of mass destruction, Iraq has stepped up its quest for nuclear weapons and has embarked on a worldwide hunt for materials to make an atomic bomb, Bush administration officials said today. In the last 14 months, Iraq has sought to buy thousands of specially designed aluminum tubes, which American officials believe were intended as components of centrifuges to enrich uranium. American officials said several efforts to arrange the shipment of the aluminum tubes were blocked or intercepted but declined to say, citing the sensitivity of the intelligence, where they came from or how they were stopped. The diameter, thickness and other technical specifications of the aluminum tubes had persuaded American intelligence experts that they were meant for Iraq's nuclear program, officials said, and that the latest attempt to ship the material had taken place in recent months. The attempted purchases are not the only signs of a renewed Iraqi interest in acquiring nuclear arms. President Hussein has met repeatedly in recent months with Iraq's top nuclear scientists and, according to American intelligence, praised their efforts as part of his campaign against the West. Iraqi defectors who once worked for the nuclear weapons establishment have told American officials that acquiring nuclear arms is again a top Iraqi priority. American intelligence agencies are also monitoring construction at nuclear sites. While there is no indication that Iraq is on the verge of deploying a nuclear bomb, Iraq's pursuit of nuclear weapons has been cited by hard-liners in the Bush administration to make the argument that the United States must act now, before Mr. Hussein acquires nuclear arms and thus alters the strategic balance in the oil-rich Persian Gulf. Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain met with President Bush today to reaffirm his nation's support for action against Iraq. Iraq's nuclear program is not Washington's only concern. An Iraqi defector said Mr. Hussein had also heightened his efforts to develop new types of chemical weapons. An Iraqi opposition leader also gave American officials a paper from Iranian intelligence indicating that Mr. Hussein has authorized regional commanders to use chemical and biological weapons to put down any Shiite Muslim resistance that might occur if the United States attacks. The paper, which is being analyzed by American officials, was provided by Abdalaziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, an Iran-based group, during his recent visit with other Iraqi opposition leaders in Washington. Much of the administration's case, however, revolves around Iraq's attempts to develop nuclear weapons and assessments of the pace of the efforts. In the unfolding debate, administration hard-liners argue that possession of nuclear arms would enhance Iraq's sway in the region. Administration officials also assert that the acquisition of nuclear arms might embolden Mr. Hussein and increase the chances that he might use chemical or biological weapons. The officials contend that Mr. Hussein refrained from using chemical and germ weapons during the 1991 Persian Gulf war because he feared a devastating retaliatory blow from the United States and that he might now conclude that the Americans would not dare strike him if he had nuclear weapons. "The jewel in the crown is nuclear," a senior administration official said. "The closer he gets to a nuclear capability, the more credible is his threat to use chemical or biological weapons. Nuclear weapons are his hole card." "The question is not, why now?" the official added, referring to a potential military campaign to oust Mr. Hussein. "The question is why waiting is better. The closer Saddam Hussein gets to a nuclear weapon, the harder he will be to deal with." On the Brink of War Hard-liners are alarmed that American intelligence underestimated the pace and scale of Iraq's nuclear program before Baghdad's defeat in the gulf war. Conscious of this lapse in the past, they argue that Washington dare not wait until analysts have found hard evidence that Mr. Hussein has acquired a nuclear weapon. The first sign of a "smoking gun," they argue, may be a mushroom cloud. Still, even though hard-liners complain that intelligence about Iraq's program is often spotty, they plan to declassify some of it to make their case in coming weeks. The administration briefed members of Congress on Iraq's programs to develop weapons of mass destruction this week, but it is not known to what extent officials talked about the intercepted shipments. Given the special intelligence-sharing relationship with Britain, the information on the attempted purchases Mr. Blair plans to release in a few weeks. The administration's critics assert that the last decade has shown that Mr. Hussein can be contained through a combination of United Nations sanctions, carefully designed inspections and, if Iraq refused to admit the monitors, targeted air strikes. Iraq, the critics say, remains heavily dependent on external assistance to advance its nuclear program. Washington, the critics say, has time to try its hand at diplomacy and should enlist United Nations backing to force Mr. Hussein to accept inspectors back. Taken in its totality, the critics insist that the intelligence suggests there is no rush to take military action. The Central Intelligence Agency still says it would take Iraq five to seven years to make a nuclear weapon if it must produce its own supply of highly enriched uranium for a bomb, an administration official said. American intelligence officials believe that Iraq could assemble a nuclear device in a year or somewhat less if it obtained the nuclear material for a bomb on the black market. But they say there are no signs that Iraq has acquired such a supply. Still, Mr. Hussein's dogged insistence on pursuing his nuclear ambitions, along with what defectors described in interviews as Iraq's push to improve and expand Baghdad's chemical and biological arsenals, have brought Iraq and the United States to the brink of war. nytimes.com

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (600)	9/8/2002 12:31:00 PM
From: JEB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8683

*Index for the Case against Saddam Hussein*, INTRODUCTION ON VALENTINE’S DAY in 1998, Robin Cook – then Britain’s Foreign Secretary – came out with a new position on Iraq. “Doing nothing, he said, “is not an option.” It was, nonetheless, an option which both Britain and the US proceeded to take. February 1998 was the turning point in US-Iraq relations. In Washington, the US House of Representatives decided that the policy of containing Saddam Hussein through United Nations sanctions is not working, and started preparing for unilateral military action. This started the path to a second Gulf War. ... Message 17966092 IRAQ’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME “Saddam is doing everything he can do without special [nuclear] material, and [he is] betting on acquiring the material outside Iraq. There are places they can go and find it on sale. And when that happens, they’ll be able to surprise the world with a finished weapon” – David Kay, leader of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspection missions to Iraq (Quoted in The Record (Bergen County, New Jersey), 4 August 2002). Iraq now has all the elements of a workable nuclear weapon, except the fissile material needed to fuel it, according to defectors. With Iraq’s trade links now reopening, and 7,000 nuclear engineers employed, it is feared that this final stage will not take for long. Before UN inspectors left Iraq, the following had been ascertained:- ... Message 17966093 IRAQ’S BIOLOGICAL & CHEMICAL WEAPONS “Iraq is still building and expanding an infrastructure capable of producing weapons of mass destruction. Baghdad is expanding its civilian chemical industry in a way that could be quickly diverted into chemical weapon production.” - George Tenet, CIA director, Feb 2002 Iraq’s skill at hiding its weapons factories is demonstrated by the fact that the United Nations took four years of inspections to find out about its biological programme. Its scope is immense, UNSCOM found evidence of 38,500 chemical and biological munitions and ... Message 17966094 Iraq’s development of chemical and biological weapons May 1988 Starts research on aflatoxin at a laboratory in al Salman. Its method was to grow fungus aspergilus in 5.3 quart flasks (The Center for Strategic and International Studies, “If We Fight Iraq: Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction,” revised 28 June 2002) . Nov 1989 Develops 16 R-400 Aflatoxin bombs, and conducts trials in 122mm rockets. April 1991 Iraq tells UN that it has never had any biological materials, weapons, research or facilities. Jan 1991 Tests run on crop spraying helicopters, to test their suitability for spraying ... Message 17966095 IRAQ’S BALLISTIC MISSILES Iraq started purchasing Soviet Scud missiles in the 1970s. They have a range of 300km but Iraq succeeded in doubling this to 600km when it developed the al-Hussein missile. These, as the Gulf War demonstrated, can reach Tel Aviv. UN Security Council resolution 687 required Iraq to destroy all missiles with a range greater than 150km, but left it free to develop missiles whose range falls within its circumference. Washington and London believe this is a loophole which has allowed Saddam to develop his own missile production skills. Since the UN weapons left in December 1998, the following remain unaccounted for and are understood to be still in Iraq:- ... Message 17966096 IRAQ’s USE OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION & WAR RECORD Sept 1980 Iraq invaded Iran, starting an eight-year war where it deployed chemical weapons against Iranian troops and ballistic missiles against Iranian cities. Feb 1988 Iraq forcibly relocated Kurdish refugees from their home villages in the Anfal campaign, killing between 500,000 and 180,000 Kurds Mar 1988 Iraq used chemical weapons against Iraqi Kurdish rebels in Halabja, killing an estimated 5,000 Kurds and causing numerous birth defects which affect the town today. Aug 1990 Iraq began a seven-month occupation of Kuwait, killing and committing numerous abuses against Kuwaiti civilians, some 620 of whom remain unaccounted for. Apr 1993 Iraq orchestrated a failed attempt to assassinate President George Bush during his visit to Kuwait, July 2002 Kofi Annan says that Iraq has now promised to return Kuwaiti state documents and archives. It had admitted to having impounded ... Message 17966097 IRAQ’S SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM Iraq is formally listed as one of the US’s state sponsors of terrorism. However, neither the FBI or the CIA have been able to link Saddam or any Iraqi to the events of 11 September. Attempts to draw a link between the two have produced the following results ... Message 17966098 BREAKING FREE FROM THE SHACKLES: IRAQ’S TRADE RECOVERY The UN policy of containment was dependent on Iraq having its economic power curtailed by sanctions. However, this framework is rapidly disintegrating as other countries show increasing sympathy towards Iraq. In May 2002, the US General Accounting Office said that, in 2001, Iraq earned $2.2 billion in illicit trade, $1.5billion of it through illicit exports and $700 million in surcharges. In September 2002, Tony Blair said this may be closer to $3.0 billion (Answering questions in a press conference in his Sedgefield constituency, 3 Sept 2002. The Prime Minister said at the time the figure came from memory, and ... Message 17966099 THE LEGALITIES OF UNILATERAL MILITARY ACTION The US believes that Iraq is in violation of its ceasefire agreements, and is now vulnerable to the same military attack authorised in 1990. Internal US law On 3 Feb 1998, when Clinton officials, preparing for what was to become Desert Fox, said the authority from military action was drawn from the joint resolution passed by Congress on the eve of the Gulf War. This resolution, named PL102-1, has no expiry date. It was argued that, as far as the Congress is concerned, this provides US administration with the authority to use force against Iraq. United Nations law The US also argues that any future attack on Iraq will be legal under international law, under the following UN Resolutions: ... Message 17966100 EVENTS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS 3 Mar 1991 Ceasefire agreed on Persian Gulf War, or Operation Desert Storm 3 Apr 1991 UN passes Resolution 687, ordering the destruction of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction 17 Jun 1993 UN issues its last finding of “material breach” against Iraq. 20 Mar 1996 UNSCOM reports Iraqi resistance, violating the “unfettered access” agreement. 23 Oct 1997 After more than a year of Iraqi interference, the UN suspends sanctions reviews until April 98. 29 Oct 1997 Iraq bans Americans in UNSCOM from making ... Message 17966101