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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (16406)	9/8/2002 12:08:59 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 23153

I've said all along that the DOW should bottom in the 6500 range and I wouldn't be surprised that my target was too high by about 500 to 1000 pts. I think tossing out numbers like DOW 3700 is a big joke, with the caveat that if we have a large scale war or multiple major terrorist attacks on our own soil -- all bets are off. I respect that TA might point to 3700 but I think that it flies in the face of reality. Do we have a weak economy, sure. Is it in a panic state such that we should have the DOW drop ANOTHER 60% or more? No f-n way but that's just my opinion. Let me add that the more we read this type of analysis and the more people truly believe this bear will never end, the closer we are to the finish line.

To: jim_p who wrote (16406)	9/8/2002 2:31:06 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Jim, Since we don't have the chart to look at it's hard to see what kind of TA Swenlin is using. Much as I like TA, Swenlin with an SPX of 350 is talking about a retrace to the 1994-5 levels. I don't really think TA can look quite that far into the future, as a continual fall to 350 would probably take another 2 years. Here's an SPX with some broad lines and Fibo numbers drawn in, just to get a sense of scale. stockcharts.com[h,a]mbllyiay[d19930908,20020908][pf][vc60][iut!li14,3!lb14!lg!lc9][J6920253,Y]&listNum=1 As for any earnings relationship, S&P's earnings are 44.70, which at 893 gives it a p/e of 20. These are, of course, depressed earnings. To get to an SPX of 350, assuming no further earnings collapse, you end up with a p/e of 7.83. spglobal.com I don't really see that happening. I'll stick for now with my autumn bottoms of Dow 6500, Naz 1000 (985), and SPX 650. Beyond the fall I see a rally and beyond that is beyond the capabilities of TA or FA or Nostradamus, separately or combined, imiho. Kb