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Strategies & Market Trends : Groundhog Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (5692)	9/8/2002 12:42:14 PM
From: Peach	Respond to of 6346

My goal is to have cash ready to deploy at or near the bottom as it should be the best opportunity for a long term buy and hold strategy that we will ever see. Your message, though dire, gives me more hope than I have had in a long time. I am glad I am mostly in cash too.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (5692)	9/8/2002 8:57:44 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6346

That is a very wise post. The 1995 retrace levels are still a ways off, too. Everything that I see is that the bubble started in 1995 and the bubble retrace theory says that we have to retrace the whole thing. Whenever I bring this up in the 3D world, people point out that the market would be pricing in zero economic growth for the past 7-8 years. My only comment is that, as far out of whack as we got on the overvaluation side, we can get that out of whack on the undervaluation. What it turns into is a supply and demand equation for equities rather than valuation model. My goal is to have cash ready to deploy at or near the bottom as it should be the best opportunity for a long term buy and hold strategy that we will ever see. Pricing in 7 to 8 years of zero economic growth may be appropriate when people start to perceive that the "growth", or much of it, was phantom anyways.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (5692)	9/9/2002 11:07:06 AM
From: MulhollandDrive	Respond to of 6346

gmstechstreet.com >>Whenever I bring this up in the 3D world, people point out that the market would be pricing in zero economic growth for the past 7-8 years<< honestly imo it doesn't matter. what matters is that valuations were pushed too high in anticipation of something like 4% growth (some were even arguing at the time that 5 to 6 was attainable and non inflationary because of "productivity") imo, we're still in an earnings recession, most especially if you compare earnings growth to the highly optimistic models that were used to justify historically high pe's...