Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Groundhog Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (5693)	9/8/2002 12:43:59 PM
From: Peach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6346

Yes, when I look at both charts it seems clear where we are going. Thank you so much for the great charts.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (5693)	9/8/2002 3:04:21 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6346

gotta run for now... but i wanted to repost this analysis which was linked by nextrade on the RE thread....excellent read, imo. contraryinvestor.com Consumption Junction?...Although the recent official headline recession is over for now, current labor market conditions resemble anything but a strong economic recovery. Important in that households have stretched financially over the last few years to continue spending. In good part responding to stimulus such as low mortgage rates and zero percent auto financing. But for how much longer can consumer spending hold up as labor market conditions remain stuck in limbo, not getter a whole lot worse, but certainly not improving meaningfully at the margin? Although we have begun to deflate the bubble in the equity markets, the bubble of systemic leverage expansion has barely been addressed. Households have continued to lever as if there has been no downturn at all. As we approach the anniversary of zero percent auto financing schemes and current mortgage rates bounce near multi decade lows, for how much longer will anomalistic financial incentives support consumer spending via further leveraging of personal balance sheets as labor markets now approach conclusion of their second year of historically relevant weakness? Certainly the answers to these questions lie ahead and will have direct bearing on the economy as a whole, but anecdotes are beginning to mount that suggest change in consumption patterns at the margin are beginning to emerge. There was asset price "cheering" on Wall Street with the release of the recent unemployment report. The headline revealed that the unemployment rate dropped from 5.9% in July to 5.7% in August. But as usual, a peek behind the headline reveals a bit less to cheer about. It just so happens that on a net basis, private sector (non-governmental) job creation was actually negative. It's the first time this has happened since April of this year. The headline employment number read an increase of 39,000 gainfully employed bodies for the month, but the increase in government workers was 41,000. And of the government body count increase, close to one half were airport security workers. Suffice it to say that the report was actually nothing to cheer about in terms of the private sector. It's not just the employment report where tepid labor conditions are characterized. Broad economic statistics are littered with anecdotal evidence. Jobless claims data is clearly starting to resemble the jobless recovery period of the early 1990's...