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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (42627)	9/8/2002 6:07:03 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The tactics look to be very creative and, imo, will include very powerful political components as well. Saddam will try "rope a dope" <war in the cities> the US and it's many allies will "float like a butterfly, and sting like a bee." <take Iraq in pieces> :o} That Talabani is now discussing holding oppostiton meetings in Northern Iraq indicates a high degree of sophistication and coordination with Iraqi Kurds in an effective psy op campaign - at the minimum. I expect US spec op guys and CIA have been crawling all over Northern Iraq looking at "reliable" military elements to feed uplink gear and weapons to. I am sure the Kurds have been assured complete Allied air support - from B-52's and B-2's to Apache's and A-10's. The "Marsh Arabs" Shia in the south are more of a mystery, so in the south I would expect more heavy armored assaults to create protected and viable pockets of political opposition with firm US millitary "guidance." :o} Spec Ops will be all over Western Iraq - set up for Scud interdiction. Imo there will be NO safe havens for Scud battalions. Wouldn't surprise me to see US, SAS, Aussie, Israeli and Jordanian spec op guys involved. Imo scud elimination will be JOB ONE in the western desert. There will be a "Western Excursion" this time - bet on it! :o}

To: carranza2 who wrote (42627)	9/8/2002 10:57:08 PM
From: jcky	Respond to of 281500

Saddam's army is a joke. Why go to all the expense of fielding an enormous force when a smaller, more focused, approach might be just as effective? If we decide to invade Iraq, this president does not want to see a rag tag Iraqi army putting up sufficient resistance against our American troops to humiliate our armed forces. But it is not the regular Iraqi army everyone is worried about. It is the Republican and Special Republican Guards set up in Baghdad and employing urban warfare that will be the critical deciding factor. An overwhelming military force also has the added psychological effect of procuring surrender from Iraqi foot soldiers. If you were an Iraqi infantry man, would you be more incline to fight 50,000 or 250,000 Americans? So what is the risk of fielding a smaller, more focused force in Iraq? Well, nothing, if everything plays out according to script. But wars are notoriously known for their unexpected twists and turns and if our smaller forces are bogged down from unforeseen circumstances then there better be a contingency plan (i.e. overwhelming presence) available to cover all the angles. We do not need another Somalia in Iraq.