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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumar89 who wrote (42669)	9/8/2002 9:53:20 PM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 281500

Well, I think he is under attack, in a 'pro-forma' way... and he does need the Arab street, as the best chance of survival, short of agreeing to aggressive inspections, requires that he, Hizbollah, Al Qaida, et al, open up multiple war fronts in as many places as possible. A bio-chem attack on Israel is virtually a foregone conclusion, imo. Israel has a good shot of deflecting most of it, if it comes by Scud. If it's been smuggled in and gets released from within, I think we'd all better be prepared to see the Glow formerly known as Baghdad.

To: Brumar89 who wrote (42669)	9/8/2002 10:02:31 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

He hasn't attacked Israel in the past except during the Gulf War when he was trying to split the alliance against him. He has attempted unsuccessfully to annex Iran's and Kuwait's oil fields by force. He has, in years past, proposed joint invasions of Saudi Arabia to leaders of other Arab countries. Since the Gulf War, a standard feature of Saddam's rhetoric has been to ask, "who will fire the 40th scud?" (he fired 39 scuds in the Gulf War). Saddam wants to be the hero of the Arab world, no surer way to do that than to attack Israel. So I think he will attack Israel immediately once he's been attacked -- if he can. We are currently taking out his bases and missiles in Western Iraq.