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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (23231)	9/9/2002 12:48:17 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Mike: whenever the subject turns to M's love of QCOM eternal, Annie Lennox' voice turns up in my mind: Sweet dreams are made of this Who am I to disagree? I travel the world And the seven seas-- Everybody's looking for something. Some of them want to use you Some of them want to get used by you Some of them want to abuse you Some of them want to be abused. (so...) (Hold your head up--Keep your head up--MOVIN' ON) which of the four "some of them want to" applies in Maurice's case, is of course open to discussion.

To: mishedlo who wrote (23231)	9/9/2002 4:06:46 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

Thanks for asking Mishedlo. I'm sure the gallery groaned because they knew I'd jump at the chance to give you the gory details. < Where the H is the profit for QCOM in it? Can it continue? Is it priced in and more? Does a bear market give a rat's ass? Will QCOM EVER make dime one out of china? For such a wonderful trend why is the stock dropping? How much of QCOM's priofits are given away in stock options? Is shareholder equiting rising with "supposed" profit growth? What is a reasonable PE for this "bargain"? With stock options and, pro forma BS, and one tiime hits etc etc etc, does QCOM really have a PE? Enquiring minds want to know the answers to those questions.> 1.....Profit for Mighty Q from ASIC sales, royalties, and the whole long list of other stuff they have got on the go [SI search isn't working right now so I can't find the list, but there's a lot of it, such as graviton.com ] 2.....Can it continue? Yes, until umpty trillion CDMA transducers are out there [Graviton.com] and 6 billion people have a few communication and cyberphone devices each. 3.....Is it priced in? No. Few people have even priced in the ordinary stuff, let alone the hot stuff and still to be thought of stuff. They still think GSM is the way to go. 4.....The bear market has brought Q! back to earth with a thump [it was overcooked at the peak]. The trend has been a friend to the bears, but it won't be going to zero. So it'll turn and never go back to such a low level, somewhere between here and zero. Guessing the bottom is great fun. Missing out is a greater risk than hoping for silly sellers to keep selling something worth $200 for $30. I am hoping there are more silly sellers at really low prices. I will have to do my noble duty, if they really panic and sell at stupidly low prices [say around $10], and be buyer of last resort. 5.....QCOM is already making many dimes out of China. 20,000 ASICs a day are being sold right now in handsets to subscribers in China. The royalties are small, but at about 2.25%, that's another $1 a phone [that'll pay a few sales people in Beijing]. 6.....The stock is dropping because there are more sellers than buyers and the sellers are ignorant and fearful, or getting margin calls. Or, they are right and the world is going to end next year so spending the money on fun right now is a better idea. 7.....Stock options have been gobbling about 1% a year. 8.....They've been losing money lately, thanks to dud investments. So it's been a bad couple of years, other than the growth rate. They've ditched the bad investments now. The big losses are out of the system now. 9.....They don't really have an E so picking a reasonable one is not possible. What's needed is a good guess at future revenue and what they'll decide to do with it. I expect they'll start reducing the R&D and let more drop to the bottom line and either pay it out as dividends or buy back some stock. It's all guesswork. 10.....Oh, you asked in the next question. No, there isn't a P:E at present. It's guesswork. My guess is super duper sales and profits. Others think GSM will sweep CDMA aside. Those who get it right will do well, those who get it wrong will lose their dough. All great fun, Mqurice