Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Daytrading Canadian stocks in Realtime -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: electrodude who wrote (56901)	9/9/2002 1:54:41 PM
From: Vitalsigns	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 62348

I highly doubt the only target is Iraq on this next move. They are going into a hornets nest that knows that after Iraq falls , they are the next targets on the war on terror. It is very likely that the terror network will form a terror coalition force and come at the US and Brits from all sides . A one time blitz you can say. There is always concern about War because war is never perfect and no matter how hard you train for all outcomes, there is always one you may not have expected. The recent army game played recently in the states saw the superiorly equipped team defeated by the underdog because instead of using normal means of communications , the underdog used motorcycles and was able to circumvent eavesdropping equipment and maintain communications to there ground troops. So nothing is fail safe . The Gulf war rally did not begin until day 5 after it was clear that the enemy was not able to handle the coalition forces and had started to retreat. That one was fought with many forces fighting one enemy in a strong coalition. This time there are several enemies within a close range and neighbouring countries with only a few (at this time only the US and the Brits are going in) armed forces fighting within a region that does not want them there. This one has the potential to create large US and Brit Casualties if it goes wrong. and I would not want to be the leaders of those two countries if heaven forbid it does go bad. Thursday's speech to the UN and the world will tell us a lot about how they plan to proceed , but so far , no one wants to join them , wonder why? Betting on a war rally this time , while every other analyst is saying the same thing , may be lethal to your pocket book. I am not saying the July 24 lows get taken out at this time, but the odds have now increased that they could be taken out , so that being on guard is the prudent action to take. BTW I do see SPX 840 being tested before any attempt at 969 Cheers

To: electrodude who wrote (56901)	9/9/2002 2:01:46 PM
From: the Chief	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 62348

Just wait tillt he bombs start falling and the talking heads recall the start of Desert Storm marked the beginning of a huge rally I will explain my pessimism. It has nothing to do with Telescopes either. For the first 6 months after 911, the market reacted to every plane crash, building fire/evacuation as a terrorist action. It is only now that we start to recover from that fear level. Bush talking about Saddam, Blair supporting him, now causes many to begin that fear cycle all over again. A comparison to Desert Storm and what "may be about to happen is an inaccurate comparison. Desert Storm was "perceived" by the westerners as liberating Kuwait. The middle easterners perceived the liberation of Kuwait as Satan himself stepping on Muslim holylands. This is what bought Osama to the forefront, and gave him the platform under which he could fight. An invasion of another Muslim state would insight many who believe that the US is the true Satan. So my bet is that any involvemnt by the uS in the middle east will "screwup" these markets for the next 3 years. To the end I have commited a significant dollar amount to gold and gold funds. I beleive that if Bush and Blair are boneheaded enough, they may screwup the civilization that we are all used to for a number of years. If they back down now, your scenario may play out. The only thing that can almost be assured is oil will spike down right after an easy win over Saddam, any prolonged fight, we gotta problem. Bookmark this message, I will bookmark yours, see you in Feb.