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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pvz who wrote (16438)	9/9/2002 11:48:36 PM
From: pvz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

KB, here are some further thoughts on CPC:VIX. 1. Vesselin Bontchev (http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=475463) uses the 21/200 ma crossover to generate buy and sell signals. I think this correlates much more accurately with market turns, especially if you only started buying/selling just after the crossover - i.e. don't rush it. stockcharts.com[e,a]dhllnyay[df][pb21!b200][vc60][j4304647,y]&listNum=11 2. I downloaded the actual data for the past 3 years and replotted my 12 data points using actual highs and lows, or as close as I could get to them. The average cpc:vix in the last 3 years is 0.027. High is 0.048 and low is 0.013. 3. By increasing both the cpc and the vix by the same % interval, the cpc:vix obviously stays constant. 4. If the vix increases faster than the cpc, that increases the denominator and therefore decreases the result. [By the way, you'd better ignore my previous data table. It was giving you confusing information because I had the cpc rising faster than the vix, which is the exact wrong way round.] 5. Since buy signals are generated when the cpc:vix declines, the cpc is generally less variable in this equation (kind of like a flexible constant). The vix is the truly emotional one, driving the contrarian buy/sell signals. 6. It is possible to get anomalous data from day to day, so I believe the moving averages are much more important than individual daily price points. For example, while the market is complacent (i.e. while the ma is high), it is always possible to get a higher than average vix reading for a day, which would bring the day's reading right down. The converse would work as well. Earlier today you wrote Right now p/c is 0.789 and the Vix is 40.89, which gives you a ratio of 0.019 Today's ratio was quite a bit lower than the average (0.027)- hence fearful. My interpretation is that this is a wall of worry at work, particularly if this continues to be confirmed by the 15ma. 7. The 200ma has been slowly rising in the past 3 years. This seems mainly attributable to the steadily rising $CPC. stockcharts.com[e,a]dhllnyay[df][pb10!b15][vc60][J4486339,Y]&pref=G By the way, this annotated $CPC is another chart worth following. (Even better would be the index only PC, but it has to be calculated manually.) It fell out of its long term pattern in August but has just popped back in again. The bear market isn't over yet <g> Those are my thoughts this evening. I'm interested to read what you (or anybody else - are we the only ones reading this???) think of it. Maybe we can continue the dialogue as the week progresses. After all, it does appear as if we are in some kind of slow topping mode, hence all the whipsaws, foodfights and general uncertainty about what is coming. As this malaise can last quite a while, we need something to keep us busy before the action starts up again. PVZ