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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (5355)	9/9/2002 9:37:14 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

Gottfried, it would appear that the SOX could make a move higher soon. Only the late selling today kept it from going green. I will be watching carefully tomorrow. Much of what I see in my charts is constructive at this point. Only the lack of volume and the advance/decline ratio on the NASDAQ kept me from covering my open AMAT short today. Here are couple of conflicting opinions. First from Briefing.com: briefing.com General Commentary Last week we noted that the sector/market was at a crossroads... The indices/major leadership stocks had rallied to major resistance levels off their July lows but lacked the momentum to sustain a move above these critical ceilings... How the sector behaved during the pullback would be key in determining the market's near- to intermediate-term direction... Well, as we noted throughout last week the selling was ugly, with the SOX moving to a nominal new 52-wk low... In most cases, volume on the declines was much greater than on the advance - another negative sign. However, in rallying on Friday the indices exhibited a somewhat unexpected resilience... Same can be said of Monday's session, when increased concern over a potential war with Iraq, and uncertainties related to the upcoming anniversary of the 9/11 tragedy, provided traders plenty of ammo to sell... But after a weak open the sector and the market battled back... Though volume figures weren't impressive, it's interesting to note that several of the sector indices are back testing their 50-day moving averages - most notably the GSTI Computer Software Index (GSO 95.64 +1.38). Traders will want to watch this index closely over the next few days... If the GSTI stages a decisive break above its 50-day moving average at 96.69, and follows that up with a successful test of its August high at 106.03, it would give bulls reason to think that maybe the August rally was not just another head fake but the beginning of something a little more meaningful... After 106.03, not much resistance until the 120 area... Interestingly, the Amex Telecom Index (XTC 389.83 +4.85) and the Wireless Telecom Index (YLS 40.62 +0.30) - two groups that paced the sector meltdown - look similarly encouraging, with the former actually holding above its key 50-day moving average throughout last week's retreat. Robert Walberg And from Harry Boxer Closing Technical Market Comments Mon Sep 9th 2002 thetechtrader.com LOW VOLUME & POOR BREADTH UNDERLIE RALLY By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) The market certainly ended a lot differently than it started. The day began with a gap down. The indices tried to stabilize for 15 min but then moved to lower lows. That turned out to be the lows for the day as the markets went into a slow steady rise until after the lunch hour when it accelerated & took off on a steep ascent, taking out price resistance and the declining moving averages on the hourly charts. Late in the session the markets stalled right at the intermediate declining tops line on both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 and then backed off just before the end of the session. But net on the day the Dow was up 92, 9 on the S&P 500, 9 on the Nasdaq Composite, and 10 on the 100. The SOX index was close to unchanged, down only a fraction. However, as good as the gains looked today, volume was only moderately light. There was only about 1.3 billion traded on New York and 1.2 billion on Nasdaq. Advance-declines were negative on Nasdaq by 70, but positive by about 400 on New York. Up/down volume was 2-1 positive on New York, but 6-5 negative on Nasdaq. So it was an interesting very mixed day. My personal board showed some big gainers and also some fractional losers. The market leaders did well today, eBay up 2 1/2, IBM 1.30, Qualcomm 1.40 , Microsoft up 88 and Amgen, up 83 cents. What the markets need now is to get a follow-through to break the indices out. I’m not necessarily looking for that to happen because of what I consider fairly low volume and less than desired breadth today, which was not surprising. It looked more like a bear-market short covering rally today than it did a breakout into a new bullish trend. Tomorrow will be very important day for the market. If the indices do not break out and follow through and we start to move lower, we may yet be in store for another leg down to retest the lows at the very least. We’ll see how it goes. Good Trading! Harry Who will be right? RtS