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To: kapkan4u who wrote (170850)	9/10/2002 12:56:25 AM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 186894

Kap, I think there is definitely a possibility for the unexpected to happen, but the probability of the unexpected to happen over and over diminishes very quickly. The worst possible news then would be the sudden up tick in inflation. That would be a problem, especially for people expecting rate cuts, which I personally am not expecting. As far as uptick being sudden, the monthly jumps are generally ignored unless they are confirmed by several months of increases, and there would have to be a sustainable cause for it. Commodities could contribute, but the percentage that commodities play in a modern economy such as the US economy keeps decreasing. So it would take a much bigger jump, and not from a multi-year low for the commodities to account for much. The one exception here is oil, which is a wild card. Another reason that is within the realm of possibilities is a some kind of exchange rate crash of dollar, which, if there were to be a sudden uptick in inflation, exchange rate problems would me my bet for the cause of it. Then, you have the wage pressure, and pricing power of companies, that are normally the strongest contributors of inflation, and they are just not there presently, except in government, which has lived in its own world, but the reality is in even there. I am not saying don't worry, be happy, just thinking out loud through the CRB numbers and their implications. Joe