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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kirby49 who wrote (15394)	9/10/2002 3:25:10 PM
From: sea_urchin	Respond to of 81205

Thanks again, Bob. I went through your post adding my comments. > The ADX line is a smoothed average of the + and - DI's. Below 20 it signifies a sideways trending market. Above it signifies trending up if the +DI is on top or down if the -DI is on top. As long as it's above 20 if it's moving up, it signifies the trend is strong. The important thing is that when it turns down, it doesn't mean the trend is changed, just that it has lost strength. In other words, the higher the ADX is above 20, the greater is the slope angle of the trend to the horizontal. However, as the angle becomes less, and the slope of the trend lessens, the bull market also slows. Many people like to sell when the ADX turns down after having been above 40. > So at the first of October when it turned down it didn't signify a major change in trend. That we didn’t know at the time, only in retrospect. Of course, everyone is smart when looking back. > As well as when the first of June this year when it turned from that high level there was no long term change in the trend. The only time to get nervous was perhaps the last two weeks of July when the DI's crossed, but that was not confirmed by a cross with the ADX. I agree but by the end of July one was committed to remain in. > All that goobldygook just means that by following the common sense that you have, you have done the right thing by holding. One can’t be sure, prospectively, only when one looks back. > Mostly you and I are alone here, for I no no others who have held as long as us. I was lucky to get in April 2, 01 and anyone else who has been in since Nov 00 has done even better. Anyone in much before that was just a permabull goldbug hoping to recover previous losses<LOL>. OK, I take your word on that. > Let's go back before Apr 01 having changed the second indicator to Slow Stochastics. stockcharts.com[h,a]wacl... As I said before, I don’t like the stochastics as a short-term indicator because they are too noisy ie too many oscillations. > ADX below 20 and could have bought mid July and sold mid September and rebought mid Nov. In fact as the -DI was on top it would have been better to state that as covered, shorted and covered and that last time when the ADX moved above 20 and the +DI turning to the top not only covered, but change to long. As well change back to MACD. For swing trading, we should have sold both last summers and this summers consolidation periods and bought back in last November and of course last month. So it's those indicators for the trading signals and the ADX with the directional indicators for trends. But it's not a hybrid as they are meant to be used in conjunction. I’m not a trader so I’ll take your word on that. > The caveat that I put on all this is that I don't trade that index, but individual juniors which are not liquid enough to trade ----yet. So this exercise is important for when we want to leverage these individual stocks. Bought this last June at .46 and didn't sell that spike last fall as my Dad taught me not to sell your gold at the beginning of a war. He did you a favor. Your commitment to the investment was probably more important than all the tech analysis. > He was a POW in Germany for 3 years and survived the Depression before that by working as an electricians helper in the mines of Timmins though he had graduated as a professional engineer. He certainly didn’t have it easy. He must be/have been a very interesting man with a lot of wisdom. > Otherwise I like Descending triangles bouncing off support which are coiling and the 50/20 cross last summer confirms that it should be held. stockcharts.com[h,a]wa... I think you did very well with Bema but I have to say the big volumes arising as if from nowhere and coinciding with the June peak make me think there could have been a partial sell-off. stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyiay[df][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLl14!Lg]&pref=G > Hope this hasn't muddied up the waters. Not at all. Thanks very much.