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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (6744)	9/10/2002 8:04:00 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

A run on banks in the largest creditor nation! Trust me, not even the Japan Bears would really want to see th effects of this one. You are right, it is absolutely necessary, and it is a sign of how useless the bureaucrats are that this may be the only thing that changes Japan. With the Nikkei at 19 yr lows, and they are thinking of injecting trillions of yen to stabilise it. Ishihara (Da Guvnor) is portrayed as a xenophobic, racist, right-wing politico. Maybe he is, I do not know. But it is now becoming more and more obvious that a real disaster is in the offing, now that there is no real driver in the world economy to hide behind. Sep2002 is half-year end and Japanese companies need to report, hence the need to prop the Nikkei - again. I am sure that should the bank-run happen, people will use it as an excuse to justify $SPX<500; $CRB>275; $AU(POG)>400+ ; double or triple dip. As I mentioned w.r.t. the markets, I am becoming less and less a believer in cause-and-effect. It may be the trigger, but it is not the cause. People seem to ignore the fact that we get these statistical outlier events more frequently than we imagine. -macavity