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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (6079)	9/11/2002 11:49:03 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

Fed officials couldnt find their dicks in the dark, part 12 in a few years, US banks will be holding many underwater real estate portfolio loans, and FannyMae might be in its own death throes, and tens of 1000's of households will be in hock to the mortgages (thus crimping spending) we are very different from Japan, and love to proclaim those differences but the similarities are more numerous than diffs our addiction to foreign capital infusions carries with it a denial system, an entire system to deny its devastating truths what I focus on is the nature of our economies Japan is an exporter, a saver we are an importer, a borrower so as Japan continued to debase its currency (by printing new yen bills and converting to TBonds), they entered into the deflation illiquidity trap for heaven's sake, their national federal pension program is based upon a forced 0% bond fund !!! if we continue down the deflation spiral, where Japan saw deflation gripping harder and harder, WE WILL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY, since the USA will see inflation while our lack of savings will render difficult any internal investments in plant, equipmt, the job creating mechanisms we are too buy dealing with our debts USA will see inflation from imported products and components from commodities, which are predominantly imported from declining dollar assets, in particular TBonds as the TBonds are sold, our interest rates rise everything points to the USA following Japan's path, but with a monstrous difference, INFLATION eventually there is no rule against having a RECESSION and INFLATION we are seeing the early glimpses already in a few months the deflationary spiral might be largely spent, maybe not materials costs are rising all around energy costs are rising all around debt service is widening, but with lower rates (for now) worker health costs are rising all around insurance costs are rising all around we in the USA are months away from a strange blend of deflation and inflation which Puplava aptly describes the profit margin pinch will continue but in Asia a paralledl profit margin pinch will continue USA pinch is from rising costs, flattened pricing power Asian pinch is from dropping prices in US markets, from declining dollar translations nope, endless recession is what I see on all continents this is the backfire blowback from the failed imprudent strong dollar policy that is now being unwound it will take a long time to unwind until the US has the wisdom to rebuild our mfg base / jim