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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (43243)	9/11/2002 11:10:58 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

you are a poor student of both debt and world finance Yeah, and I also lost my a** in the market. Well, we can't all be genius's like you. lindybill@dijaevernoticegoldbugsaresnotty.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (43243)	9/11/2002 1:18:11 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

you are a poor student of both debt and world finance /jw Markets are only dramatically impacted when they don't have a chance to factor in the events you cite. I will address them one by one: attacking Iraq will set off chain reaction This ignores the chain reaction that will likely be set off if NOTHING is done, and Saddam obtains nuclear weapons. At least in such a circumstance, WE'RE CONTROLLING EVENTS, and not the other way, as occurred on 9/11. If you want to consider "chain reactions" you should spend more time pondering what has happened since that horrible day 12 months ago. What kind of properity has been lost around the world due to the actions of militant Islamists? What do they have in store for us NEXT TIME?? Do you think a Saddam is seeking Nukes solely to preserve his own regime?? Are you ignoring his psychological megalo-mania that drives him to "unite" the Arab world under his leadership? What kind of repercussions will THAT have?? higher oil prices To be rapidly followed by much more stable oil prices as the US taps the SPR (as needed) and Iraqi oil fields are brought back online in the months ahead, with economic benefit going to rebuild Iraq and not to construct another palace for Saddam. scattered oil boycotts Unlikely... This would prove the best opportunity to sell oil at higher prices than will be available later on. Arabs coming to Sodomy's defense And facing the potential wrath of US military power and being included in the "axis of evil"?? Not likely. No one really loves Saddam and the US has NO QUARREL with the average Iraqi. If anything, we're on a mission to liberate Iraq from tyranny. political problems with Saudis Who cares? They need us more than we need them. spreading conflict to uncontrolled unexpected areas Name me a muslim country that isn't ALREADY involved in some form of conflict?? If anything, muslim governments will take the opportunity to further repress their militant Islamic communities. anger by our allies (e.g. Turkey) Only on a surface level.. Turkey would only be angry if we permit the Kurds to possess independence (not likely). And if anything, the Turks will appreciate the opportunity to become even MORE directly involved in shaping the political future of Iraq. This is a fight they can ill afford boycotting. There interests are at stake as well. As for Europe? Who cares? They will shape their politics to avoid upsetting their own muslim populations. But changing the economic and political landscape of the middle east will greatly decrease the need for muslims to emigrate abroad. boycott of dollarized assets The Dollar has been in decline since 9/11. So it would seem that American WEAKNESS AND VULNERABILITY is a greater threat to dollarized assets than any show of strength aimed at defending our security and our interests. slowdown in US and European economies from "energy tax" higher gold price Gold will only gain in a market of uncertainty. Creating certainty through imposition of "order" through strength and economic development is the best best to reversing that psychology of uncertainty. and if the conflict persists, massive derivative events gold is linked to bonds and interest rates directly the dollar will be trashed The conflict has been going on for decades in a limited form. 9/11 stands as the first major attack and set that conflict on a higher scale that WE MUST DEFEAT. If we don't then the uncertainty of "where will next 9/11 occur" will continue to pervade the global economy. As for equilibrium in financial markets.. so long as markets have time to prepare and weigh all the likely scenarios and risks, some semblance of equilibrium can exist and systemic shocks avoided. So before you start asserting that others need remedial education in global finance and politics, you might refresh yourself with Machiavelli and the concept of realpolitik. Hawk