To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (39551 ) 9/11/2002 12:02:25 PM From: Paul Shread Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52237 Beige Book - District reports suggest that the growth of economic activity has slowed in recent weeks, with a good deal of variation across sectors. Although Atlanta and San Francisco reported modest improvement, most Districts indicated slow and uneven economic growth, with mixed or scattered experiences across sectors of the economy. Boston and Dallas reported little change in the overall level of economic activity. Retail sales were generally mixed, although seven Districts reported strong sales of home furnishings or appliances. Three Districts attributed slow apparel sales to unseasonably warm weather. Back-to-school supplies were reported to have sold well in three Districts, although another District reported disappointing sales. All Districts noted that retail inventories were at desired levels, with some reporting that inventories are being kept leaner than in the past. Almost all Districts reported an increase in auto sales over 2001 levels, mostly due to aggressive financing and rebate incentives. On the whole, manufacturing activity was sluggish, with a good deal of variation by industry and region. In particular, some Districts reported weakness in the high-tech and building materials industries, although other Districts reported strength in the auto and steel industries. The strength of the tourism sector varied across the Districts, with six indicating an increase in business and four reporting low or mixed activity. Almost all Districts noted that business travel has remained at a low level. Most Districts reported little or no gain in employment in July and August, although three noted that the demand for temporary workers has strengthened. In most Districts, the prices of inputs and final goods increased slightly or remained flat. Despite few signs of pressures on wages, there was widespread concern about the effect that rising health care costs might have on labor costs. Nearly all Districts reported strong residential sales and construction activity. On the other hand, commercial real estate markets remained weak. Banks in all Districts report strong demand for residential mortgages and refinancing, although business lending continued to be weak across the board. Credit quality was described as good and delinquency rates as either stable or declining. Drought conditions have been adversely affecting crops and livestock through most of the West and large areas along the East Coast. The experience elsewhere was more mixed, with yields severely reduced in some areas and near-record levels in others. Oil prices have risen while natural gas prices have been largely unchanged. Natural gas inventories are expected to be at record high levels when the heating season begins.