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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yorikke who wrote (6754)	9/11/2002 5:00:20 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

'cuse me? <<Gold is on the edge of some heavy weakness in its cycles. Right now is not the time to invest>> Thats quite funny... GOLD was actually "quite heavy" towards the end of June. Monthly, weekly charts suggest otherwise. U r correct if referring to daily/ hourly or shorter time frames. I would suggest that the various indexes (except XAU & HUI) r on the cusp of a very nice bear market rally. So, as u suggest GOLD will have some competition in the short-term. Longer term is a different story... IMHO. I'm buying GOLD on weakness & will play the general equity rally Regards, Peter

To: Yorikke who wrote (6754)	9/11/2002 9:55:01 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

I do only stick to the big boys. NEM/AU/ABX I am trying to look at some smaller caps like GLG/MDG as these do really take off. As I generally equate my position size to price volatility, I find that trading larger caps actually gives better stats. It is just that I have caught some gold moves very close to the bottom on daily charts - I always get stopped in (e.g I buy above the market on a pullback), so that when I see the likes of KGC move 10's of percent I do wonder about my strategy. I will possibly look to trade the smaller-caps intraday and leave the big caps for overnight positions. My first gold share purchase was TVX in Q1 2001, I noticed the group was getting accumulated in Q4 2000/Q1 2001. The $HUI went up like a rocket and this POS fell like a brick. If the group goes up and your stock goes down - get out! It has only just got back to where I bought it. They did a 10 for 1 reverse split/consolidation, sure thing of a dodgy company. I bought it at 1.4 (now 14) and was out at 1.2 (now 12). I am rigid on stops. That is why I only stick with the larger caps. Yes I know, if I had bought absolutely anything else I would be in clover right now - beginner's luck. There is always next time! If $AU closes above 330/340 or wherever (on monthly) these are going to be great to play/trade. I am trying to learn my trade now, in anticipation. I always get surprised that so many traders turn their nose up at these. They've got the mo! On risk-weighted and liquidity measures the large caps are the place. If the world gets "GoldFever" then these will attract the funds money first, they are not going to play around with the 3-holes-in-the-ground-and-waiting-companies, that is the job of greedy and hopeful traders like me. As you may be able to tell, I hate fundamental research (as I am really bad at it), and would much rather let the market do the work for me. Long AU, ABX, awaiting the GOLD HOLDR/SPDR patiently -macavity