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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maceng2 who wrote (43455)	9/12/2002 10:07:01 PM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Georgia, Iraq Two Sides of Same Coin Editorial President Putin's keen eye for analogies in international power politics has paid off once again. themoscowtimes.com By outlining plans for a possible military strike on Georgia and citing UN resolutions as the basis, Putin has underscored the similarity between Moscow's conflict with Tbilisi -- which it accuses of harboring terrorists who pose a direct threat to Russia's security -- and Washington's explosive conflict with Baghdad. (One year ago, Putin did a similar shadow dance when he offered Chechen rebels a 72-hour deadline to sever ties with terrorists, mirroring an ultimatum Washington had just presented to the Taliban.) Putin's threat of military action has raised the stakes of the game. His reference to the UN Security Council's anti-terrorism resolution gives Russian national interests a thick coat of international legitimacy. Moreover, the harshness of the warning sends a double message to Washington. On one hand, Putin has put pressure on the Bush administration to show how far it will go in its support for Tbilisi. On the other, by acknowledging the United Nations' role as arbiter, he has played on the world's exasperation with Washington's go-it-alone attitude on Iraq. Additionally, open talk of a potential use of force is an attempt, albeit clumsy, to justify last month's poorly handled Russian air raid into the Pankisi Gorge, which Moscow has unconvincingly denied. But Putin's bark is worse than his bite. Russia is highly unlikely to pursue a ground operation that would put new demands on its shoddy armed forces. More important, a military conflagration in Georgia could quickly fan out across the Caucasus, further destabilizing the entire region. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who has railed against Tbilisi for providing safe haven to terrorists, said Thursday that using force against Georgia "may prove unnecessary." Some observers say Putin's statement on Georgia was aimed at Washington. Clearly, there has been no simple trade-off, whereby the Kremlin has agreed unconditionally to support Bush's drive to oust Saddam Hussein in exchange for carte blanche in Georgia. But both Moscow and Washington have overlapping security and economic interests in Georgia and Iraq. And the former superpowers have obviously linked their plans for these two nations in more subtle, still nascent agreements. If Russia's tough stance on Georgia helps nudge the Bush administration toward accepting world opinion and seeking UN approval for an attack on Iraq, both Moscow and Washington will win out. What would otherwise have seemed like the unbridled pursuit of national interests will be ennobled by the air of international legitimacy.

To: maceng2 who wrote (43455)	9/14/2002 12:44:04 AM
From: D. Long	Respond to of 281500

Putin Considers Strikes on Georgia I believe the Pankisi Gorge will be one of the levers we use to get the Russian vote against Iraq in the UNSC. Derek

To: maceng2 who wrote (43455)	9/16/2002 1:24:23 AM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Georgia Denies Putin's Right to Strike (I think we will hear the "I am a patient man" words from Putin before long... pb) themoscowtimes.com Combined Reports Georgia has denied that President Vladimir Putin's warning of possible military intervention in the Pankisi Gorge could be justified by the international anti-terrorist campaign, saying it is nothing but a "threat of Russian aggression against a neighboring sovereign state." In Washington, U.S. President George W. Bush asked Russia to give Georgia time to flush out rebels in the gorge. He said Georgian troops were being trained by the United States to combat terrorism on their own. The Georgian Foreign Ministry issued its official response Friday, two days after Putin's warning to take strong action against alleged terrorists on its territory or face Russian involvement. Putin based his argument on United Nations resolutions on fighting terrorism that permit unilateral action. "The Georgian side firmly calls on the Russian side to refrain from steps that have not been thought out, which could lead to new destruction and human losses, destabilize the situation in the Caucasus as a whole and inflict irreparable damage to Russian-Georgian relations," the ministry said. Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze later sent a five-page letter to Putin, complaining about Russian attempts to turn Georgia into an enemy. "No such threat has come from Georgia in relation to Russia or will come," Shevardnadze said in the letter, which was released to the media. Furious words have flown between Tbilisi and Moscow for months over Georgia's lawless Pankisi Gorge, where Chechen rebels and terrorists have allegedly linked to al-Qaida have found refuge and from which they allegedly launched attacks into Russia. Russian Deputy Prosecutor General Sergei Fridinsky said Friday that 300 to 400 rebels were believed to be based in the gorge at any one time. Bush, speaking at Camp David on Saturday, said Washington expected the Georgians "to root out the al-Qaida-type terrorists in the Pankisi Gorge." But Bush, noting that American instructors were helping to train Georgia's military, urged the Kremlin to be patient. "I have told Vladimir Putin that they must give the Georgians a chance to achieve a common objective, an objective that's important for Georgia, an objective that's important for Russia, an objective that's important for the United States," Bush said. "And so, I urge him to continue to work with us to allow the Georgia troops to do their job." In New York, European Union foreign ministers at a UN General Assembly session Friday told Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov that the EU disapproved of any unilateral action on Georgia. U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton, visiting Moscow on Friday, quashed speculation of a deal under which Moscow would lift objections to U.S. military strikes on Iraq if given U.S. leave to hit bases in Georgia. "I don't see that there are really any quid pro quos to be had [on Iraq], whether with Russia or others," he said. The State Duma, meanwhile, passed a resolution Friday accusing Georgian leaders of being "fellow-travelers" with international terrorists who pose a direct threat to the security of Russian citizens, "including those living in Abkhazia and South Ossetia." The Duma resolution, passed by a vote of 350-21, with two abstentions, expressed full support for Putin's warning and suggested that Moscow consider economic sanctions against Georgia, including ending preferential energy prices. The Georgian parliament late Friday approved a nearly 30 percent increase in defense spending, by 13 million lari ($7 million). Georgian Defense Minister David Tevzadze indicated that some of the funding would go toward new anti-aircraft weapons, saying that soon the country would have "not only slingshots" to shoot down warplanes that violate its airspace. Georgia has repeatedly accused Russian aircraft of carrying out bombing raids on its territory just over the border from Chechnya. A Chechen man who was wounded and detained after trying to flee a police checkpoint in the Pankisi Gorge escaped from a hospital with the help of accomplices, an official said Saturday. Georgian Interior Minister Koba Narchemashvili ordered the arrest of the regional police chief, who was responsible for security at the hospital. (AP, Reuters)