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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (6176)	9/12/2002 1:19:33 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

I believe a sea change has occurred wrt gold and correlates no longer does GOLD seem to be closely tied to the USdollar surely, if the dollar were to take a serious tumble, then gold would see a lift but since the July correction, some changes seem evident in the asset classes that work inversely with gold the S&P index remains tied to gold's movement still almost without exception, a down day for stocks is an up day for gold sometimes they are both up, an argument for equities and liquidity generally but most stock sectors look sickly, and gold will benefit as all else blows dogs the two biggest factors I see now for gold are commodity inflation and systemic risk after 15 years of supply neglect (while the world chased stocks), commodities are now badly in short supply this comes from neglect certainly, but also from poor prospects in locating the actual stuff AND from regulation problems such reg problems stem from forbidden zones (e.g. Alaska WildLife Resve) from NIMBY issues (not in my back yard) near well defended lands where politicians and esp socialists live AND from the disasters resulting from deregulation the Enron collapse was as much about hyperlunacy trading without oversight as unchecked derivative casino bullshit now the energy and utility sector is under severe credit pressure to justify their business models the deflation we see in the "regular economy" owes much to the excessive credit issued and the huge debts burdening the many industries that (ab)use debt but the "other economy" has suffered under the aegis of braindead politician burokrats attempting to regulate a necessity watch water resource stocks outperform the main S&P sectors with all the suppression of gold and silver, we have seen numerous good mines closed down supply is at a critical shortage across the board with commodities the recent US Midwest drought and European floods only worsened an already moving shortage a winter below average will bring front & center heating costs I expect the first commodity to blow up to be natural gas then there is systemic risk surely the USdollar plays a role we have three world stores of reserves (US$, SwFranc, Gold) since 1990 the USdollar has prevailed but now a shift is in progress with the strong dollar insanity policy comes systemic risk to the world's banking system already Latin America is seeing implosion (maybe Argentina will awaken to a new silver-backed Peso) soon Japan will force a banking liquidation either by choice or by market force and Asian banks generally are suffering from deflation soon American banks will have to write down Latin debts when they do, I expect derivative events en masse Enron can easily be classified as a derivative event its trading function was 10x larger than LTCM in 1998 regardless, I expect multiple derivative events upcoming my guess is the banking sector will precipitate the events and gold will be its release valve as the US real estate bubble begins to give gas, expect the gold rush to accelerate as the US TBond rally begins to stall, expect the gold rush to accelerate we are soon to see a worldwide economic recession this is the aftermath of the Y2K expansion ugly this way comes and gold is the historical safehaven proven for centuries this is not a new economy era it is the same old economy with some new insanity to purge I eagerly await Puplava's update on Bubbles I remain, A Jackass